0/ $BTC continues to exhibit historic levels of underperformance- in the bottom 0.5% cumulative 20- & 30-day trailing returns back to ’13. The only period of worse cumulative 30D performance was earlier this year 2/3-2/6 where it was -48.9%, -57.8%, and -52.8% respectively. 
1/ The market has a much different feel when that performance is off of previous YTD lows as opposed to the ATH. You continue to see near ATH levels of $BTC “turnover” which would seemingly suggest some signs of capitulation.
2/ Clearly the move isn’t isolated to $BTC with $ETH exhibiting the worst ever recorded 20- & 30-day periods of underperformance (-50.6% / -60.4% respectively).
3/ On Wall St banks create customized portfolios representative of the most crowded positions to analyze pefr. In crypto outside of $ETH it felt like $EOS was that position for most of the year. $EOS too has had the worst ever trailing 20- & 30-day performance (no surprise)
4/ A lot of $BTC maximalists like to pretend this is par for the course (it’s not). There have been a bunch of theories as to what precipitated the sell off many of which are centered around mining and miners holding and all capitulating together. This seems pretty nonsensical.
5/ Mining reward as a % of ADV continues to trend lower & to think they all acted the same defies behavioral finance. While there likely hasn't been significant net "fiat" inflows this year ~$500bn of paper money came out of alts discounted at w.e % is a significant offset.
6/ What fewer people are talking about is the $BCH hard fork on 11/15 (BTC is -40.2% since that day) which is a bottom ~1.0% return over a tailing 21-day period recorded. Correlation not Causation. Perhaps.
8/ I don't want to give him any credit for anything but it's tough to argue with the fact that 1) He mentioned significant selling pressure 2) We've seen Incredibly old wallet movement 3) $BCHSV which every1 can agree to hate is one of the top performing assets 4) Follow the coin
9/ Over the course of the year the % of $BTC or $BCH held by the top 100 addresses is remarkably stable. Yet since 11/15 it’s broken fairly precipitously to near ATL since the data was tracked.
11/ But not only have we seen large wallet movements we've seen wallets that were clearly miners. Take this cluster of $BTC wallets that hadn't been touched since 2011 all made their way onto @binance which has traded the most $BCHSV
12/ Bitcoin Days Destroyed is not at all time highs and everyone is comfortable with "exchange maintenance" as the rationale... would be yet another interesting coincidence. Especially as you see early mining $BTC wallets on the move.
13/ As a retort to the mention of $BCHSV relative strength people talk about "thin order book" & "artificial prices" (because they've heard it before) Keep in mind $BCHSV was only for the already smaller set of $BCH holders & nearly every exchange has offered it except @coinbase
14/ So now everyone is waiting for "institutional money" to save them. How would you start to explain to an institutional investor what happened over the past ~20+ days?
15/ "Conspiracy theorists burning man group had a plan" "This guy who pretends to be Satoshi who the industry hates did this insignificant fork and it spooked people but cleansed the industry" "Miners held together and sold together" "HODL- par for the course- cue @danheld video"
16/ All of that is under key risks in the $BTC investment memo should bode well to get through an investment committee or for a portfolio manager to deploy capital. Just need to watch some CSV or GeoStar videos before hitting the buy button....
17/ Then there's this whole thing called macroeconomics than many people fail to consider. What happens to $BTC & crypto more broadly in tightening financial conditions where risk assets seemed poised for their first meaningful correction in 10 years...
