Project Brexit is imperilled, as it was always going to be, by contact with political reality. But it's Remainers who I think are at a disadvantage in outreach, messaging and strategy. It'd be a shame to learn the hard way twice that being right isn't the same as being effective.
Arguing over institutional arrangements will work for discrediting a negotiated deal in Parliament. But what next? I think it's highly likely that decision-making on Brexit will be returned to the electorate, either through a General Election (my preference) or a 2nd Ref.
What Kamikaze Brexiteers like Johnson and Rees-Mogg have astutely understood from the start is that the electoral coalition that will deliver Brexit don't actually care about the technical details. That's why the contradictions and bluster inherent in their position don't matter.
They've made the fight about broad political values (sovereignty, control as embodied by the functioning of borders, national identity) bolstered by the occasional figure, (£350mil) or policy area (fishing). Brexit didn't win on a manifesto, it won on emotionally resonant memes.
You can't win by debunking memes with facts, sorry. And (this is where I differ from quite a few of my colleagues) you can't win by hoping to fashion a Lexit where the social and cultural forces don't exist for it, and haven't been adequately nurtured in the past two years.
The Right were, errr, right when they highlighted the failure of Project Fear in 2016. And frankly, arguments about collapsed economic growth aren't going to work for people who haven't felt the benefits of it for decades.
Remain campaigners are going to have to make arguments which operate on a radically different emotional register. Hope is important. Control (over the economic and social forces which shape your existence) is important.
Brexiteers pulled a blinder when they monopolised 'sovereignty' - but that's not the same thing as democracy. For Remain to win, they're going to have to spell out (in words that can fit on a bus) how they're going to close distance between people and decision-making institutions
Stop frothing (but not investigating) referendum cheating. It doesn't convince anyone new. Leave voters don't feel dark money or FB ads changed how they voted. And it makes it seem like political forces are aligning to overturn the vote on a technicality. Bad look. Very bad look.
The key to stopping the hard-right nationalist forces poised to pounce on Brexit isn't going to be finessing a reprieve for the status quo. It's about actively creating consent for meaningful change, and expanding democratic participation beyond a 2nd ref to stay in the EU.
