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Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm
, 14 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
As today is not the big #Brexit day we all thought, some thoughts on #Brexit, Lexit, gilets jaunes & austerity, trying to make sense of it all (thread)
On the face of it, Lexit, the idea of a leftist, pro-social policy Brexit is easily dismissed. Yes, inequality is a problem in the UK, so are regional disparities, austerity is tearing apart the social fabric, there’s real poverty (as demonstrated by the @Alston_UNSR), but...
@Alston_UNSR ... none of this has to do with the EU. The EU is full of countries with policies that are more to the left. The UK is not in the Euro. And worse: why exactly would the UK, always at the conservative side on the EU suddenly turn to the left outside of it?...
@Alston_UNSR ... but it is maybe time to look at these things in a more systematic, transnational manner. There are real divisions that cross almost all European societies...
@Alston_UNSR ... inequality is one of them. Here’s a statistic on inequality based on quintile share ratios (how many times the amount of the bottom 20% does the top 20% earn in equivalized disposable income).
@Alston_UNSR ... the other line is intergenerational and seriously underestimated because we like to think along national lines. The bitter truth is this: how many 40-year olds think their pension is as secure as that of 60-year olds in Europe? How many 20-year olds think they’ll have one?
@Alston_UNSR ...And then: globalization. While in the EU we stagnate, China is growing fast. Here’s GDP in current US$
@Alston_UNSR A lot of this is catching up, certainly - just look at GDP per capita
@Alston_UNSR And while we can seriously doubt where more growth is supposed to lead to in our countries (most people have a car, what do you need a second for? What do you do with three computers?) ...
emotionally in China a generation is growing that knows it will have a better life than the previous one. In Europe, there’s a generation that doubts this (in the US too).
The feeling of unease and malaise doesn’t translate easily into a course of action - see the gilets jaunes. They want a better life. How, what, where to go? Difficult to say.
This results in uncertainty and fundamentyll split societies: the UK? Split in the middle. The US? Split in the middle. France? Split in the middle. Etc.
And the lack of consensus translates to a lack of knowing how to communicate - it is a problem that Latin American societies have quite a bit: if your approach is from the right, the left won’t hear you. And the other way around.
The EU? A pawn in this conflict...
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