So, I'm claiming the bragging rights on most accurate prediction of the votes in yesterday's conservative leadership election (wasn't quite a prediction, but still...). So what happens next in Brexit world? In a word, uncertainty (sorry). 1/
Mood music from the EU on the PM's attempts to "renegotiate" is not good, yet still more positive than you hear in private. Along the lines that some vague reassurance is possible, anything substantive is not. 2/
The PM may claim to change or listen but her modus operandi of secrecy and partisanship is still harmful to both effective government and major negotiations. Hard to see her changing this in any way 3/
The Labour leadership meanwhile has convinced themselves that can-kicking is the new political sport, and seem determined to show they can outdo the PM on this. Corbyn of course is also not notably a cross-party consensus builder 4/
So from this hard to see Parliament resolving anything any time soon. The fundamental problem remains that there could be a majority for either a soft Brexit or referendum, but this is difficult when neither party leader wants these 5/
So we'll stagger on with no certainty from Parliament, which means business now has to trigger contingency plans. No choice, and no apologies from the PM or other MPs for the disruption caused. Perhaps we'll know by February? 6/
Continuing the uncertainty no-deal preparations will be scaled up, but these are frankly going through the motions, the machinery of Government is not working well enough right now for serious preparations to be made 7/
The poor state of no-deal preparations still points towards that not being the likeliest outcome, even if it is the default, but it remains hard to see the deadlock broken - I'm not believing talk of ERG supporting Labour no-confidence 8/
Underlying fundamentals remain same, choices have to be made, leadership shown, consensus built, yet not everyone can be happy. While our leaders live in the parallel universe where that isn't the case, yesterday was lose-lose, and we have to wait... 9/end
