Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ Heard this: "Article 24 of the WTO means we can keep the same trading relationship with the EU for 10 years?"

It's utter nonsense.

It relies on your being too busy to read Article XXIV of the GATT, or too confused by trade legalese to parse it.

wto.org/english/tratop…

2/ Important points out of the way first:

Article XXIV doesn't oblige anyone to do anything.

It's there to allow Members who have reached an agreement between themselves to form a Customs Union or Free Trade Area to do so, or move towards doing so.

3/ Article XXIV is mostly concerned with ensuring forming a customs union doesn't become a backdoor way of increasing tariffs on non-customs union Members beyond where they were at before the union was formed.

4/ The 'interim agreement' referred to in Paragraph 5 allows Members forming a Customs Union to present to the WTO Membership an up to 10 year plan for getting there.

This can include dropping tariffs on one another before a CU is in place, which would ordinarily not be ok.

5/ In practice, Paragraph 5 is not used much because Paragraph 7 basically gives all 164 WTO Members an effective veto over the interim agreement and its implementation plan.

No one wants to have their Customs Union held hostage, so interim agreements are avoided.

6/ How does this apply to Brexit?

It's entirely irrelevant.

The EU and UK are nowhere near agreeing a new permanent Customs Union. nor do they have an interim agreement or implementation plan to present to the Membership. Even if they did, Russia or someone would likely block.

7/ The idea that Article XXIV of GATT somehow obliges the EU to continue providing the full benefits of the Single Market for the next ten years, or even allows the UK to unilaterally offer the EU (and no one else) market access is preposterous.

Merry MFN Christmas, ya'll.

8/ P.S Paragraph 3 also doesn't solve the Irish Border question. At all.