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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This starts the 90-day period to March 21 for WTO members to claim an interest and the right to negotiate over the UK's proposed commitments on goods (tariffs, tariff quotas, farm subsidies).

The focus will be particularly on tariff quotas.

1/4
Some/all WTO negotiations are expected after Mar 21. The schedules (lists) of commitments will be certified when all objections are dropped. The modifications won't be needed until UK & EU no longer have a customs union eg, end of transition under the Withdrawal Agreement.

2/4
The EU is some months ahead of the UK because it is only modifying its tariff quotas. It went straight to the GATT Article 28 process in July, whereas the UK is only doing that now.

3/4
A reminder. The UK's draft goods schedule is 715 pages. The 685pp on tariffs are uncontroversial. The 25pp on tariff quotas are heading for negotiation, and the remaining pages on farm subsidies should pose no real problems.

Explanation/implications: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…

4/4
P.S. the circulated document is on WTO documents online, but it is secret

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/F…
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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 18 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
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Why does Twitter deliberately target Right-wing accounts for Shadow-banning and why it will sooner rather than later completely back-fire and why they are ultimately going to destroy the Left and what a great day that will be. Thread. 1/15
It is no surprise Twitter targets accounts for “wrong think” or as we on the #Right like to call it “free-think” this is because of two events which are now totally and utterly inextricably linked, #Brexit and #Trump and the Establishment have been rocked to the core. 2/15
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Read 15 tweets
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Today the UK and EU moved a step closer to unwinding their joint @wto trade relationship. Each filed documents in Geneva outlining the terms they will use to trade with the rest of the world once Britain leaves the EU.
@wto The two submissions are fundamentally different.
@wto The EU said it will renegotiate its @wto trade commitments to account for Britain's departure from the 28-nation bloc under Article 28 of the GATT.
Link here: bit.ly/2LAlkfd
Read 19 tweets
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PM says that the two European Commission proposals for the future relationship are “No good”
“No department was cut out” of discussions about Common rulebook, PM says re Dexeu and David Davis
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Read 8 tweets
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

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Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets

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