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Gigi @dergigi
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Working on my next piece. Went full on "don't trust, verify" by calculating the projected bitcoin supply myself - here are some things my end-of-year drunken self found interesting:
2/ Bitcoin will catch up to the stock-to-flow ratio of gold after the next halving, some time in 2020. @saifedean pointed this out in The Bitcoin Standard iirc, but seeing it in my own calculations was cool.
3/ Bitcoin will be exponential "harder" than gold after that, being twice as hard after the next doubling. Exponentials are insane, as always. In the year 2050 (approx) Bitcoin will be 125x as hard as gold. After that it will get infinitely hard quickly 🍆
4/ The last full bitcoin will be mined somewhere around 2032. We will have sub-bitcoin mining rewards after that.
5/ The last full satoshi will be mined somewhere around 2140. Interestingly enough that will be far from the last halving. With halving 34 we will enter sub-satoshi territory, resulting in no additional block reward - fees only from this point on!
6/ There will be 64 halvings in total (thank you @pwuille for BIP 42), the last of which will be somewhere around 2261 when we are all either dead, uploaded, or robots.
7/ One satoshi is and always will be missing!
> In Block 124724, user midnightmagic mined a solo block to himself which underpaid the reward by a single satoshi and simultaneously destroyed the block's fees. [...] all total supply estimates must technically be reduced by 1 sat
8/ Happy new year to everyone! More to come soon, getting a bit too drunk to continue serious work. Numbers might be off a bit for obvious reasons, so don't trust - verify!

FIN
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