THREAD: Paul Whelan's release must be a priority, but a 1-for-1 swap for Maria Butina would set a dangerous precedent. There are creative, strategic ways to avoid it, including a model from 2014, which the Trump administration would be wise to consider. (I won't hold my breath).
First, the danger. Swapping Whelan for Butina, who has pleaded guilty to the charges she faces as a Russian agent, would signal to Moscow that any private US citizen is fair game to extract the release of its own agents. All Americans in Russia would be placed in harm's way.
That's why it can't be a 1-for-1 swap. The Obama administration faced a similar situation in 2014. The Cubans wanted to swap Alan Gross, a former USAID contractor whom they had baselessly accused of espionage, for members of the so-called "Cuban 5" spy ring detained in the US.
The Obama administration recognized that agreeing to this arrangement would play into Cuban propaganda by equating Gross, a development professional, with actual Cuban spies, whose mission it was to undermine our national security. It was a non-starter.
But, in the context of broader talks to normalize relations, a solution was found: Gross would be released on separate humanitarian grounds. The Obama administration then approved the swap of the imprisoned Cuban spies in return for a US intelligence asset (spy) detained in Cuba.
It then became a pure spy swap--our spy for theirs--and Gross, who was unjustly detained all along, was freed discretely but simultaneously on humanitarian grounds. The moves were announced together upon the normalization of relations in December 2014. npr.org/sections/thetw…
Would such an arrangement be possible in this case? Perhaps--but only if both Moscow and Washington have in custody (almost certainly on unrelated charges) individuals who have worked on behalf of the other government. Only then could a similar arrangement work.
The challenge in this case is that Putin and Trump's interests with Butina are aligned. Putin wants her back, and the Trump White House has every incentive to ensure that the full extent of her penetration of America's conservative movement, including the NRA, aren't made public.
That's why I'm skeptical the Trump administration will be either strident or creative in seeking Whelan's release in such an arrangement. For them, there's an easy out--Whelan for Butina--and I'm concerned they'll take it. If they do, private American citizens will pay the price.
