Thread by @PickardJE

it’s common knowledge that even small increases in checks at Dover (thanks to no-deal Brexit) could prompt queues on adjacent roads, potentially causing gridlock in Kent....but just how bad could it be?

Here’s a report last year from @imperialcollege

google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.…

today we got our hands on the findings from another secret study carried out by UCL on behalf of the Department For Transport : the findings are much more explosive....

and here it is:

The key point is that extra checks of up to 40 seconds per truck don’t result in extra queues. But above that there would be an exponential spike on delays:

With checks of 70 seconds per truck there would be....queues of SIX DAYS

ft.com/content/d05498…

If delays reach 70 seconds per truck, a queue of between 1,200 and 2,724 heavy goods vehicles is expected, leading to tailbacks taking six days.

“[The queue] starts Monday evening and ends by Saturday noon,” according to the UCL analysis for the DFT.

If the checks go up to just 80 seconds the result would simply be “no recovery”:

“‘No recovery’ would mean the whole country is in a traffic jam,” one official said.

the DFT explanation is that this is only one piece of research (even though it was commissioned by the DFT) so move along nothing to see etc

it’s currently the splash on @FT website

that phrase “no recovery” is a real keeper

here’s a follow-up in today’s Mail online: kind of weird that BBC has ignored the story despite giving loads of coverage to yesterday’s truck exercise
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6…

Grayling was just asked by @ChrisLeslieMP about the @ft story, he effectively confirmed it:

“We have been very clear...if the French seek to impose maximum controls it will cause queues. Why on earth does he think we are putting in places these contingency measures?”