So the Commons is today starting its debate on the deal. Is there a route through this mess? Some reflections based on the @UKandEU survey of MPs carried out by @IpsosMORI (H/T @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @philipjcowley ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… (1/10)
First things first. While there is clearly no majority in the Commons for no deal, the Tories are very relaxed about it. A majority of Tory MPs don't believe no deal will lead to long queues of lorries at Dover and other ports for instance (2/10)
And if you don't believe that the impact of no deal will be that serious, then you're going to be relatively relaxed about no deal. Not least because... (3/10)
Not only do 70% of these same Tory MPs think we will be able to sign quick trade deals with China and the US, but 58% of them think deals with other countries will more than compensate for any negative economic impact of leaving the EU. (4/10)
So what's the problem? Not least given the fact that many MPs don't think @BorderIrish is as much of a problem as some argue. 85% of MPs who voted leave think there are viable solutions to the border and that the probs are being exaggerated by the EU as negotiating tactic (5/10)
The bottom line is that Mrs May deal is predicated on the need to compromise to minimise economic damage and prevent an intra-Irish border. But significant numbers of her own MPs don't accept the need for such trade offs (6/10)
So why doesn't she tack towards soft Brexit? Some Tories are a lost cause, why not make concessions to get Lab votes? The problem is the maths. Significantly more Lab MPs than last year feel that SM membership (EEA) is incompatible with Brexit - 36% this year vs 8% last (7/10)
On the Customs Union, our survey suggests she might lost as many Tory votes as she gains Labour ones in the event she goes down this route. 80% of Tories think CU membership would honour the ref result (8/10)
None of this bodes well either for the Prime Minister, or for those (@LucyMPowell @SKinnock @NickBoles @halfon4harlowMP ) touting a 'Common Market 2.0' alternative (9/10)
As for what will actually happen. Well, God knows, obvs. What is clear is who will be blamed for whatever happens. The PM's handling of Brexit has a net approval rating of -53 in the Commons, and -13 among (This. Is. Not. Normal H/T @MattChorley) *her own* MPs (10/10)
