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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit Tracker Time. Cut straight to the chase - No-Deal down to 10%, the lowest since we started last year. PM's deal also down, to 30%. But still no other option greater than 20% - no wonder people are confused...
Long time readers will note some changes of headings - trying to keep rough consistency here, but we now have PMs deal, Customs Union, and EEA as clearly separate. As they sort of were some months ago. The move away from Hard Brexit is notable here
The digest I promised is being delayed by my technological ineptitude - expect this later today, or by return to anyone who mails...
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Would it surprise you considerably that this Juncker / Tusk letter appears to change nothing? consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
Made very clear up front - we are not in a position to make changes... well we're not going to tell you otherwise
Temporarily could still mean 10 years, or probably 50. And the political declaration being of the same package doesn't mean much when it it still "of a different nature"
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Questioning common Brexit wisdom... If MPs supported the Norway option I think the Withdrawal Agreement will actually need substantial attention with particular reference to the numerous mentions of transition period
Take for example Article 128 Paragraph 5 which as I'm sure you're all aware deals with UK representation at expert meetings during the transition period. This would not be the right formulation for an EEA-bound country.
I don't think anyone has fully read and digested the Withdrawal Agreement in full, which should worry people more than it appears to. See also my earlier thought that the Irish backstop may be unimplementable
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Monday morning Brexit digest, and we start with the not-at-all surprising news of a cross-party group of MPs saying if the PM cannot find a consensus then it should fall to a group of MPs
This is a quite obvious development in a situation where there is no Parliamentary confidence in either the Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition, and both are failing to play their roles as laid down in the constitution. And it has been building.
The PM has if anything devalued her position further this morning by making a comparison to the Welsh referendum - where she personally opposed the outcome and voted against it. Off the scale incompetence....
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The problem at the heart of the #Brexit impasse is still whether the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU.

Solve this and you largely solve Brexit. 1/Thread
Both the problem, and the failure to address it, is writ large in May's deal.

Officially UK is NOT joining a customs union....but in the absence of unicorns we clearly are.

Either via the Backstop or when its clear 'other arrangements' dont exist to fix the Irish border /2
Unfortunately May never had the courage to confront her Brexiteers over this fact. She fudged in Lancaster House, and kept fudging.

Recall this time last year, as the Irish reality dawned, senior peeps like @DLidington were flying kites on this.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 21 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. There is a goliath dishonesty afoot among the leave camp that I want no part of. Everyone from Gisela Stuart through to Spiked Online, CrapX and John Redwood are pretending that anything that isn't no deal is not #Brexit. This is a sickening lie.
2. International relations are a rich tapestry of agreements ranging from exchange of letters through to mutual recognition agreements through to formal MoUs and FTAs. Nobody deals one default terms alone.
3. To that that end every nation on earth has binding obligations both with trading partners and international organisations on everything from fishing to space policy. Everything functions on integrated systems of rules.
Read 23 tweets
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The Walrus #FBPE
@RebetikoWalrus
People keep saying we should have a vote on the #Brexit "final deal".

I don't think we should wait. Why not?

Two reasons-

1/ We already know there is NO version of #Brexit that wouldn't do us all (apart from the very rich) real damage. If we #RemainInTheEU, we can get on with
repairing the damage that #Brexit has already done, which is considerable, and carry on with improving things for all Europeans.

2/ I suspect May's plan is to run us out of time, so we crash out with no deal, and hence no time to vote on it. All her delaying tactics have been
aimed at that result, including trying to extend MP's extremely long holidays, to prevent them from stopping her crazy game.

I think we can't get Parliament recalled, as the usual way to do that would need the Government to ask the Speaker, and May won't allow that.
Read 6 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
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Rachel Heyburn #FBPE #WeAreTheOppositionNow
@Rachel5742
1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
.@MichelBarnier : "no possibility" of a UK-EU trade being concluded by #Brexit in March 2019. This is not news, even to @DavidDavisMP

So what can UK realistically get next year?

And does that tell us about UK strategy?

1/thread
First. What is possible.

In January talks will resume and the UK will focus on transition. This is DexEU and Treasury focus.

They will strike an early agreement on this, even pushing to find a way to formalise it prior to the Withdrawal Agreement being ratified /2
The EU will likely reject the attempt to formalise transition deal in some early, focusing instead on the following:

- drafting withdrawal agreement
- creating dispute resolution mechanisms on Money etc
- drafting a "political declaration" on trade/future relationship /3
Read 16 tweets

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