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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Reminder: you're likely to hear a lot of guff today about trading on WTO terms (or, heaven forbid, a "WTO Brexit" which is exactly like saying "a unicorn"). The reality of WTO trade is very different from how Brexiters portray it.
You may well also hear assurances that we will be able to fix our tariffs at 0% for 10 years after we leave the EU, because of handwavium (ok, GATT might get a mention, perhaps not). That too is wrong.
medium.com/@jim_cornelius…
It's ok to have your reasons for wanting Brexit. But expecting trade on WTO terms to yield anything other than huge economic pain (latest estimate > 8% hit to GDP, i.e £100s of billions) is just absurd, patently ridiculous. No matter how many times Brexiters lie the opposite way.
Remember, the WTO is where we end up as a very last resort if we don't manage to strike any deal at all. In jumping-out-of-a-plane terms, it's the ground. We'll definitely hit it. But the experience is probably not going to pan out particularly well.
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More from @uk_domain_names see all

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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Completely idle speculation, but I wonder what would happen if say 325 Tories, Labour, LibDems and SNP got together and formed a grouping meant to create a Government of National Unity, but without including either TM or JC? Since no party has a majority in the HOC that would
seem at first glance to be as legitimate as both TM's government and JC's opposition. In other words, although it's never been done before of course, is there anything explicit to prevent third party attempts during the 14 days after a lost vote of no confidence?
Because at the moment there are plenty of people on both sides of the house who have more in common with each other on Brexit (the ONLY issue that matters right this second) than they do with either of their own front benches.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Ok, so Theresa May's almost certainly going to win the vote of no confidence, but even if she didn't it's not an automatic recipe for a GE.

There's a 14 day period in which the Government can try and reclaim the confidence of the House. That would seem virtually impossible, but
Brexit creates so many "firsts" it just might happen.

What if TM went over Jeremy Corbyn's head to Labour back benchers with this package:
- no deal immediately off the table
- A50 extension
- permanent custom's union
- guaranteed people's vote
- place at negotiating table
It would have to be in some legally binding form, if such were possible. I wonder if that carrot would be enough to persuade them that backing her in a new confidence vote (no limit to the number that can be held in the 14 days) is more likely to give them a Brexit they can live
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Time for a brief chat about an 8% hit to GDP, which is what is forecast under a no deal scenario.

You might think "Hmm, that means I will lose 8% of my income". Sounds bad, for sure, but potentially "survivable" (to use Liam Fox's expression from yesterday).
But it doesn't work like that. The pain's not evenly distributed. What happens in practice is some firms weather the storm just fine, maybe because they're in industries that aren't affected to the changing situation, aren't connected to the EU even at one- or two- removes, etc.
Other firms take a massive hit. The downturn of 2008/2009 represented about a 4% drop in GDP, and saw millions of people out of work and thousands and thousands of businesses go bankrupt. So imagine what twice that damage would look like.
Read 10 tweets

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Prof Tanja Bueltmann
@cliodiaspora
Today it’s time to highlight that the negative impact of #Brexit on EU citizens isn’t just a story about individuals, but also of how families and loved ones are affected. Deal or not, they too are #AlreadyNotFine. Like Juliette and her family. 1/
If you are an EU/EEA/Swiss citizen please do join in throughout the week using #AlreadyNotFine. This is part of the #EUcitizensChampion awareness campaign and I hope many more people will become a champion. gofundme.com/eucitizenscham… 2/
See also 3/
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
Today’s trade nugget of the day for #Brexit: customs IT system. Whether you are a maxfacker (I’ve always wanted to write this) or a trader: what you want is a paperless customs systems. How is customs IT doing?
The EU is shooting for an IT based system. That’s what Art. 6(1) of the Union Customs Code says.
You might think “oh we all have computers, so what’s the problem” - but you are talking about a highly complex system across 28 (soon 27) countries. In fact, the EU wanted to move to an electronic environment with the 2008 Modernised Customs Code. Turned out that didn’t work.
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Jill Rutter
@jillongovt
very interesting ideas for post-Brexit environmental governance from @CommonsEAC publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm…
@CommonsEAC reflects a lot of the arguments in @instituteforgov evidence and in our report on devolution and #brexit instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/d…
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Paul Chaplin #FBPE 🇪🇺
@CottlestonPie
I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets
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Nina Schick
@NinaDSchick
Catch me on @skynews at 12.30 GMT - where I will be discussing Theresa May’s meeting with Angela Merkel in Berlin. #Brexit
1. In case it wasn’t already clear - Germany’s position on Brexit will not change. The U.K. has a history of over-relying in Germany in EU negotiations. (Cameron made this mistake too.)
2. This displays a misunderstanding of the vital political, strategic and economic importance of the EU to Germany.
Read 14 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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