Thread by @Teri_Kanefield

(thread) How do we get out of this mess?

Hi, Patrick. I think that, the end, the only real way to save liberal democracy is through public opinion and elections.

It’s easier to write about how we got into this mess than to chart pathways out. (A crystal ball would be helpful)

https://twitter.com/earvland/status/1085745186200682498

1/ By “this mess” I mean finding ourselves on the verge of a fascist takeover.

In the past I warned against impeachment because the process works like this: The House investigates. If the House finds evidence, it impeaches. Impeachment requires a simple majority . . .

2/ The Senate then holds a trial on whether to remove from office. 2/3 of the Senate is required for removal.

The process is analogous to an investigation leading to an indictment, followed by trial.

It's clear the McConnell-led Senate won't remove, regardless of the evidence.

3/ Scholars like @tribelaw warned that impeachment without removal would further empower Trump. The Senate not removing would be like a finding of not-guilty at a trial. (Trump would gloat.)

4/ Changes over the past few months, including voters in the midterms overwhelmingly electing a Democratic House, changes the scenario.

Now, with a Pelosi held House, an investigation will have meaning.

5/ I agree with @neal_katyal and Hayden that it's time for the House to open an investigation into whether Trump committed impeachable offenses.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/micha…
Headlines as the House uncovers evidence will offset the constant crisis and spectacle from the White House.

6/ The public will learn that Trump is a con artist and a fraud.

Interesting article: When people learn that Trump isn't actually a self-made man, he loses support.
politico.com/magazine/story…
These facts haven’t been been able to penetrate the Trump-created crises and spectacle.

7/ Investigations take time. I imagine a House investigation concluding over the summer or later. Meanwhile more indictments will undoubtedly emerge.

If (as I suspect) the evidence is irrefutable, the House will impeach and the matter will go to the Senate.

8/ I expect the Senate will acquit (2/3 is required for removal)—and pay dearly for it in the 2020 elections.

Removing Trump from office is not a fix to the problems. We will not get Pelosi.
Pence would also be a disaster. Even if Pence, too, is impeachable . . .

9/ . . . they will stagger resignations to appoint a clean VP, as happened after Watergate.

Besides, Trump isn’t the problem. He is a symptom of the problem that has been developing for many decades. See this abbreviated history of the GOP:
terikanefield-blog.com/history-of-the…

10/ After the 2020 election, we can begin to heal and repair.

I’ve heard people say “Things have never been this bad! It will be too late to repair in 2020!”

11/ I suggest that the only people who say it has never been this bad are either white or know nothing about what life was like in the 1930s in America for African-Americans, other minorities, and women.

Conclusion: Mueller can’t save us. More indictments can’t save us . . .

12/ The problem, of course, is that the battle will be fought in the court of public opinion. People argue with me over this, but I believe Trump is a master of controlling the national conversation. He's a PR con man.

13/ Winning elections by large enough margins to offset the inevitable cheating can put us on the road to healing.

I'm optimistic now because of the midterms. Optimistic doesn't mean complacent. There is a lot of work to do before November 2020. A lot will be at stake.

All of my threads are now blog entries. You can read this one here: terikanefield-blog.com/getting-out-of…