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THREAD: Hostage to fortune but with whispers tending towards a view that May will get her deal through in the end, here's why I think she won't, why Labour will never back it and why we'll end up with an early election.
1.) The only way the ERG will solidify behind PM's deal is with the removal of the backstop. There is no indication whatsoever that Brussels is countenacing this. Indeed, as the PM herself said a few weeks ago: "any Withdrawal Agreement will contain a backstop."
2.) Even if the bulk of the ERG (+DUP) backed her (which they won't if backstop is in place) there will still be some (15+) holdouts. They have other objections separate to backstop. Moreover they think they can still secure no deal, their preferred outcome.
3.) Even if ALL of the ERG + DUP came over (v unlikely) she still wouldn't have the numbers because of remainer 2nd referendum Tory MPs. Indeed their ranks might swell if ERG swings behind PM. She may even lose votes she had before. It's a dynamic process.
4.) Thus she might get much closer but nowhere near close enough. The parliamentary arithemtic is just too tight. It cannot sustain even the most modest Tory rebellion which in some form is still certain. Which brings us to Labour.
5.) In my judgement most Lab MPs will never back the PM's deal. They cannot be seen to back and save a Tory prime minister's Brexit. Doing so would effectively nullify an election until 2022. They will be deselected. And it won't just be Corbynistas/momentum types furious.
6.) There's lots of talk about Labour MPs in leave seats and what they will do. But those MPs are aware that even in quite heavily Leave seats their vote is skewed towards remainers and that's where for many the danger lies, not disgruntled leavers who don't vote Labour anyway.
7.) In any case, the tribal loyalty and pack instinct of your average Labour MP is sorely underestimated. Even in a PLP as divided and hostile to the leadership as this one.
8.) Moreover given the margin was so great last time, why would any sane Labour MP elect to throw away their career on a lost cause (and a cause of a Tory PM at that)?
9.) Especially given that the PM's personal conduct over the last week has made that any crossover harder, not eaier. In refusing to soften her red lines and remaining intransigent, Lab MPs are angered and don't wish to reward her or save her.
10.) Again the more ERG come onside, the more wary Labour MPs will be.
11.) If the Cooper amendment passes (and govt accepts it) then the one card May has over Lab MPs (the fear of imminent no deal) will (temporarily at least) evaporate. Given that, why would they vote for her deal any time soon?
12.) So the PM might get close but not close enough. She probably needs at least 20-40 more seats. Net conclusion? A general election not from a confidence vote but one she calls on a back my deal/Brexit prospectus.
13.) All along this process the PM has tested two theories to destrcution a) that hardline ERGers are biddable b) that disgruntled anti-Corbyn MPs will back her. Time after time, neither has come true. I don't believe that will change now.
