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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
James Harden would have to average 38.1 PPG for the rest of the year to beat Michael Jordan's record for PPG In A Season By A Guy Not Named Wilt Chamberlain. (37.1 in 1986-87). That's starting to look quite doable.
Harden would have to average 41.3 PPG, and play in every remaining game, to beat Jordan's 1986-87 record for Non-Wilt *points* in a season (3,041). Jordan played in all 82 games in 1986-87 whereas Harden has already missed 3. Quite a bit harder but not sure I'd bet against him.
This tweet will have an audience of like 4 people, but I think that NBA fans should use "nonwilt" as an adjective to describe records including everybody except Wilt Chamberlain, in the same way that economists use the term "nonfarm" to describe all jobs except farming jobs.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Per our numbers, this trade roughly doubles the Sixers' chances of reaching the NBA Finals this year, from ~10% to ~20%. 53eig.ht/2rKF5Wa
This is one of the more obvious win-win trades in a while IMO, although a lot more high-leverage for the 76ers than the Clippers. It does imply the Sixers are willing to carry a very high payroll.
The key is that *if* you don't care about how much you're spending and just want to win an NBA title, you generally either want to (a) have cap space or (b) be way over the cap. This is Philly transitioning from (a) to (b) and trying to avoid getting stuck in between.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Beto's (probably) running, but there are several other Dems who have already entered and had good rollouts, plus several others who could still enter and are further along in the campaign-building process. I think he should probably have struck in Dec/Jan while the iron was hot.
None of these PredictIt prices are crazy, IMO. I'd probably take a couple of points from Bernie and give them to Kamala, putting her in a 1A tier by herself, Biden in the 1B tier, and then the next six or seven candidates (not sure about Gillibrand) in the 1C tier.
^^^ remember to retweet this in a year to see how dumb it looks.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
IMO the whole key to the Anthony Davis saga is that, per our numbers, both Ball and Ingram have played to only the ~10th or 20th percentile of their preseason projections. They've stagnated, maybe even regressed, in a year when they were supposed to show a lot of development.
I should do the math on this more precisely, but the reduction in long-term expected value from Lonzo + Ingram (combined) works out to something like $35m in cap space per year, i.e. it's basically like losing a max-level player.
That just takes so much value off the table. If their development had been on track, then say Lonzo + Ingram + one 1st would have been a pretty fair offer for Davis. Maybe the Pelicans squeeze one more asset out, maybe even 2, but the trade happens & everyone feels pretty good.
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@iowahawkblog
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