Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Beto's (probably) running, but there are several other Dems who have already entered and had good rollouts, plus several others who could still enter and are further along in the campaign-building process. I think he should probably have struck in Dec/Jan while the iron was hot.
None of these PredictIt prices are crazy, IMO. I'd probably take a couple of points from Bernie and give them to Kamala, putting her in a 1A tier by herself, Biden in the 1B tier, and then the next six or seven candidates (not sure about Gillibrand) in the 1C tier.
^^^ remember to retweet this in a year to see how dumb it looks.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Beto would have an, IDK, 20-25% (?) chance to beat Cornyn? Cornyn isn't likely to be as unpopular as Cruz, and 2020 isn't likely to be as blue nationally as 2018 was. Texas is getting more purple but overall it's probably a tougher race than 2018 was.
Conversely, PredictIt gives him a 15-20% chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, conditional upon his running. And my guess is that he'd be about equally likely to end up on the ticket as the VP candidate.
He also preserves a little bit of optionality on the Senate race as he can run for POTUS and switch lanes if he wants, a la Rubio in 2016.

In sum, it's arguably in Democrats' best interest for Beto to run for Senate but it's probably in Beto's best interest to run for president.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Hi, folks. We're likely to end up with something like *20* Democratic candidates for president. Here's my argument that this is a big deal. I think people are neglecting the possibility of 🌀ChAoS🌀.
53eig.ht/2GGuiVq
What's happened in the past when fields are this large?

You've wound up with Trump, McGovern and Carter, all deeply unconventional nominees who lacked support from the party establishment.
This is also a sign that the supposed next-in-line candidates, Biden and Bernie, are weak frontrunners. They haven't been able to deter anyone else from running. Although, the chaos of a large field could ultimately be helpful to Bernie, who probably has a high floor/low ceiling.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here's my analysis of how Amy Klobuchar could win the nomination: 53eig.ht/2DrU5O5
Also how she could lose it. But I think she's a pretty good candidate.
Everything about her campaign revolves around the Midwest. Electability is a big asset. So is proximity to Iowa. She's liable to run as a "beer track" candidate, drawing contrasts with more liberal "wine track" candidates from the coasts. (p.s.: Beto is on the "craft beer track")
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
suzyrice
@suzy_rice
Dems: party of infanticide, abortion, human&drug smuggling and corrupt "doctors" - Howard Dean, one of those -- along with Pelosi and a host of other Dems, heralds infanticide, open-borders and abortion but somehow manages to "blame Republicans" breitbart.com/clips/2019/02/…
Head of DNC, Tom Perez, the reliable racist, and countless additional Democrats demand VA Gov step down but Dean manages to wedge "Republicans have no morals" into his fevered, irrational commenting. DNC, the party of infanticide.
1. Dems, nearly all of them in office at this time, demand Northam (VA Gov who is a medical doctor and elaborated on infanticide, which he and other Dems attempted to legislate into law), demanded Northam resign. It's become a rallying cry among Dems. What I suspect...
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Jessie Opoien
@jessieopie
Good morning! It's a busy day in Wisconsin's beautiful state Capitol. So many things happening. For starters, @GovWalker will light this Christmas tree at noon. But wait! There's more!
Last night, the Legislature's Joint Finance Committee voted to approve bills that would narrow Wisconsin's early voting window and strip away some powers from the executive branch and attorney general. Here's @katelynferral's story on the committee vote: madison.com/ct/news/local/…
Today, both the Assembly and Senate will be in to vote on those bills. Here's a story from @MollyBeck and @patrickdmarley previewing the day's votes, with reaction from @GovWalker and Gov-elect @Tony4WI: jsonline.com/story/news/pol…
Read 86 tweets
Profile picture
Roo Bernascone♿🌈
@roo_b_arts
Good evening folks!

We're about to begin the last day of #Halloween #sale on #tarotreading

DM for more details
Again like the previous two days I will be doing a marathon #spooky thread here while waiting for customers.

This time I would love it if people could ask some witchy, pagan or otherwise magicky questions here and I'll do my best to answer or sign post to resources

#Halloween
I'll begin tonight's thread by saying happy #NaNoWriMo18 friends this thread is my writing for the day because I'm a rebel and I'm not writing a novel.

But enough of that.

I've got rocky horror picture show live @ London's playhouse theatre hosted by Mel Giedroyc on let's go!
Read 68 tweets
Profile picture
🇺🇸2ndUSRevolution🇺🇸
@2ndUSRevolutoin
Graham knows. The FBI investigation was already done, and there is possibly investigation facts about Democrat manufacturing this issue. Just reading the signals to make sense in a consistent manner, but admit it is but a theory.
More evidence the Republicans already have an FBI investigation completed and know the results.

And we can keep this display of proof running until the FBI report Republicans seem to have already seen is publicly available...

Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Hiroaki Abe
@Hiroaki__Abe
Dems and others opposed to Trump must start strategizing now for what their game-plan will be to save the republic if Dems fail to take control of Congress in the midterms, under the suspicious circumstances of a full-blown Russian influence campaign and voting irregularities.
The prospect for being able to save democracy and the constitutional framework without a midterm victory is, frankly, dismal. If the GOP manage to retain control of Congress, no impeachment or check on executive power will be possible at least until 2020.
And given Trump's authoritarian proclivities, the likelihood that he will either cancel or postpone the next general elections, back a covert GOP led campaign to manipulate the results, or merely outsource the electoral manipulation to the Russians, is very high to certain.
Read 36 tweets
Profile picture
G. Willow Wilson
@GWillowWilson
It may be time to start thinking about how we can effectively push back against authoritarianism once the last of the checks and balances have fallen.
It's a mistake to think a dictatorship feels intrinsically different on a day-to-day basis than a democracy does. I've lived in one dictatorship and visited several others--there are still movies and work and school and shopping and memes and holidays.
The difference is the steady disappearance of dissent from the public sphere. Anti-regime bloggers disappear. Dissident political parties are declared "illegal." Certain books vanish from the libraries.
Read 12 tweets

Trending hashtags

#opendata #TeamCompassion #Iran #spooky #Memo #Squirrel #DuelingRallies #ThingsIWouldTellMyYoungerSelf #day1 #MAGA2020 #StopGunViolence #WednesdayWisdom #walkaway #MoneyHeist #smarticities #Democrats #NeverForget #Call4Justice #smatcities #Zwaluwenburg #Winning #smartcitiea #Trump #EnoughIsEnough #smartcities
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!