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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Per our numbers, this trade roughly doubles the Sixers' chances of reaching the NBA Finals this year, from ~10% to ~20%. 53eig.ht/2rKF5Wa
This is one of the more obvious win-win trades in a while IMO, although a lot more high-leverage for the 76ers than the Clippers. It does imply the Sixers are willing to carry a very high payroll.
The key is that *if* you don't care about how much you're spending and just want to win an NBA title, you generally either want to (a) have cap space or (b) be way over the cap. This is Philly transitioning from (a) to (b) and trying to avoid getting stuck in between.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here's a whip count of almost* every Republican senator's position on the emergency declaration. There's more opposition than you might think. 53eig.ht/2IjN7QY
We show:
8 Republicans opposed to the declaration
15 with concerns/doubts, but stopping short of outright opposition
7 evaluating/undecided
19 supporting
We're missing positions from 4 Republicans.

Hyde-Smith (MS), not in our original story, supports the declaration, her office says. Not sure about Blackburn (TN), Burr (NC), Enzi (WY), Ernst (IA).
Read 5 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Beto would have an, IDK, 20-25% (?) chance to beat Cornyn? Cornyn isn't likely to be as unpopular as Cruz, and 2020 isn't likely to be as blue nationally as 2018 was. Texas is getting more purple but overall it's probably a tougher race than 2018 was.
Conversely, PredictIt gives him a 15-20% chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, conditional upon his running. And my guess is that he'd be about equally likely to end up on the ticket as the VP candidate.
He also preserves a little bit of optionality on the Senate race as he can run for POTUS and switch lanes if he wants, a la Rubio in 2016.

In sum, it's arguably in Democrats' best interest for Beto to run for Senate but it's probably in Beto's best interest to run for president.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Hi, folks. We're likely to end up with something like *20* Democratic candidates for president. Here's my argument that this is a big deal. I think people are neglecting the possibility of 🌀ChAoS🌀.
53eig.ht/2GGuiVq
What's happened in the past when fields are this large?

You've wound up with Trump, McGovern and Carter, all deeply unconventional nominees who lacked support from the party establishment.
This is also a sign that the supposed next-in-line candidates, Biden and Bernie, are weak frontrunners. They haven't been able to deter anyone else from running. Although, the chaos of a large field could ultimately be helpful to Bernie, who probably has a high floor/low ceiling.
Read 3 tweets

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Gal Bashan
@BashanGal
#serverless advocates - we are doing something wrong. I have been putting this off for a long time but I really think it is important and has to be said. Warning: LONG thread.
The trigger for this thread was a talk I gave at #DevOpsDays Edinburgh. It wasn't the talk per-say, but the whole conference experience (which was awesome, but that's a topic for another thread).
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. To address a point that remainers are having fun with... the assertion that Argentina will use our #Brexit circumstances at the WTO to enhance its stake on the Falklands... is totally baloney. You know this of course, but there's a few points worth making. #Trade thread!
2. These such signals are as much for domestic consumption as anything else. This isn't the first and won't be the last. We will see a number of attempts to frustrate the UK's separation process in the hope that it will leverage concessions from the UK.
3. Some FT hack has probably already penned a poison article on how the UK will be forced to cave in because we are so weakened and feeble without the EU. As a point of fact the UK is not obliged to concede on any point at any time so long as it pays due regard to consequences.
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
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- Can be self sufficient if required
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#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
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The next 10 years could result in the below:
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Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
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Jichang Lulu
@jichanglulu
\0 #BRI and its disdiscontents: while in NZ #PwC、United Frontlings、pollies、their families、cacademics tirelessly tout Xi's project, others begin to realise its consequences. How long will it take for them to volte-face & reinvent selves as #nuanceds?
nytimes.com/2018/06/25/wor…
\1 Take, for the sake of the argument, one Jason Young of @nzccrc. In '15, he was apparently invited to some #Xinjiang BRI event in and liked it just fine. As per 曹参赞's retroactive #CorrectGuidance—“you will listen!” And sit up and listen they did. #WIN thepolicyspace.com.au/2015/25/57-chi…
\2 So that was '15, OK. But not a year ago, he was telling the People's Daily he believed China would certainly “further globalise”. Very stable genius! (It will take one to back pedal from all this BRI-luv.) world.people.com.cn/n1/2017/1021/c…
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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John Stoehr
@johnastoehr
1. It’s debatable whether “economic anxiety” fueled the vote for President Donald Trump. While evidence points to fear of lost social status as a primary driving force in 2016, the same evidence puts that fear in a global economic context.
2. What’s not debatable, I think, is another kind of “lost social status” felt not by the fabled white working class, but the old white conservative intellectual class that no longer has a home in real-world politics. They are the real left behind.
3. I’m talking about elite conservative pundits still paid lots of money by elite publications who can’t quite figure out what to do with themselves now that their views have lost much of their impact on policy makers and partisans.
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