Thread by @davidbent

#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit Tonight the UK Parliament votes on a package of measures from @theresa_may's Royal Commission on Leaving the EU.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit After becoming PM in Sep 2016, May surprised everyone by saying the UK needed to build a consensus on the future of the nation before triggering Article 50.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit This was the opposite of her normal 'inner circle only' way of doing things, and went counter to the loud Brexiteer voices in her party. But she realised that ERG would cry betrayal with any deal.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit More important, the referendum result was not a normal vote. With a aGeneral Election you get the chance to vote them out 5 years later. This was a permanent change in the direction of the country.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit It needed a wide-ranging consensus on what direction to take. Otherwise, any negotiated deal would be unstable. Some part of society would try to stop it or, after leaving the EU, reverse it.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit Even more importantly, the Brexiteers were only half right. Yes, the UK was deeply entangled with the EU. But that meant it simply wasn't possible to disentangle quickly. May had realised was mattered was not hard vs soft, but quick vs slow.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit For 40 years, people, families, UK companies, foreign businesses, investors - everyone, basically - had made decisions based on the UK staying in the EU forever. It was such a fundamental assumption, people didn't even realise they were making it.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit The depth & degree of UK-EU entanglement made a quick exit just reckless. As a true conservative, May knew that revolutions didn't work. You needed to respect the fact of where you were starting, even if you wanted to change fundamentals.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit The Brexiteers had been betting the house on 'rupture and then rapture'. Being pulled from the EU's terrible (to them) embrace would force the UK elites to do things different. To invest in R&D and education.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit But those Brexiteers had forgotten their true conservative nature, and also their Greek.

"In a time of crisis, we don't rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training." Archilochus

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit May realised that if the UK triggered A50 before it was ready, people would suddenly have a Blitz spirit. They would descend to their training in PR, & find ways to signal their virtue on 'pure Brexit' without any substance that actually helped.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit So, she set up a Royal Commission on Leaving the EU. Members were drawn from across political parties and referendum stances. It spent two years on the future direction of the UK, & therefore on its negotiating position.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit The Commission used deliberative democracy across the whole of UK to involve people, and really understand what their needs and concerns were. It was designed to give people back control.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit Of course, there was pressure to be quick. The Brexiteers pushed hard for Article 50 to be triggered immediately. May surprised everyone with build a coalition of wider voices that supported a deliberate, not reckless, #Brexit.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit It helped May tremendously that the EU was also pushing for A50 to be triggered quickly. She could tell the Brexiteers they were doing what the EU wanted. She showed being careful now created credibility & certainty later.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit The Royal Commission already has a legacy: 'citizen juries' around the UK, which support the relevant devolved authorities to make sense of complex issues and change policy.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit The deliberations of the Royal Commission have removed the energy from rump Remainers. May can authentically say that there is a large majority for the Commission's proposal. The Remainers are seen as fighting for a past which won't come back.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit Most important, the Royal Commission has been a device to treat the 'losing minority' with respect. There had been a failure of democracy before 2016, where key segments were ignored.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit Rushing to a hard Brexit would have also been a failure of democracy, just reversing which segments of the population had their opinions privileged and which were ignored.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit There's no space here to outline all the Royal Commissions proposals. In a way that is the point: the UK's future success ultimately depends on having a functioning political institutions where people's voice matters.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit Rushing could only ever lead to a deal which satisfied no one, and a growing atmosphere of betrayal. It would be the UK's 21C equivalent of the Dreyfus Affair, which poisoned French politics for the first half of the 20C.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreyfus_a…

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit Instead, tonight the vast majority of MPS will vote for the proposals of the Royal Commission. The UK will be able to embark on exit negations with credible red lines, which have wide support, and where the trade-offs are worked through.

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#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit The civil service is ready. Businesses & investors are clear & satisfied. The public has bought. The EU is reluctantly accepting. May is being hailed as UK's greatest peace-time PM. From the referendum, a better, prosperous Britain will rise.

ENDS/

#AlternativeUniverse #Brexit May realised if the UK triggered A50 before it was ready, people would NOT suddenly have a Blitz spirit. They would descend to their training in PR, & find ways to signal their virtue on 'pure Brexit' without any substance that actually helped.

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An alternative take on today's Brexit situation. For your delectation & delight: @Sime0nStylites @DavidGrayson_ @zoearden @moorehl

(I wrote it rather stream of consciousness, so some typos & also politics not fully worked thru. But enjoy anyway.)

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