Thread by @faisalislam

Our City Editor ⁦@MarkKleinmanSky⁩ understands Nissan in Sunderland is about to pull plans to produce X-trail, announced to much Government fanfare, and after a Business Dept letter of “support and assurances” four months after Brexit vote in Oct 16 news.sky.com/story/nissan-c…

currently X-trail only made in Japan, & plan announced after Govt letter was here too..

As result of EU-Japan FTA which came in to force Thurs, those Xtrails will enter EU market directly from Japan with 0 tariff.

Vs risk of 10% tariff under WTO/ No Deal Brexit from Sunderland

Not saying only factor - and it will be interesting to see if production is retained in Japan or moved elsewhere in EU, but entire existence of Sunderland plant in 1980s was as a way to get Nissan Bluebird into European markets tariff free from within the then EEC....

The French and the Italians maintained tariffs on the first Bluebirds produced at Sunderland, of course, claiming the UK plant was a Japanese Trojan horse. But then Mrs T threatened to take them to the ... errrr ... European Court of Justice, and they backed down. & rest history.

NEW staff letter obtained by @gerardtubb Nissan boss confirms X Trail will now not be made in Sunderland, only in Japan... cites “environment for car industry in Europe changed dramatically”, having to invest in new powertrains, and says ‘clearly’ Brexit uncertainty “not helping”

A Made in Japan Xtrail exported to EU faced a 10% tariff last week

Now under EU-Japan FTA: 8.8%, next yr 7.5%, 2021 6.3%, 2022 5, 3.8, 2.5, 1.3 then 0 by 2027 (HT @SamuelMarcLowe )

Made in Sunderland under No Deal WTO terms Govt tells all to plan for - tariff wouldve been 10%

... now realistically production would never have got going for couple of years - so plausible tariff differential of 5% already then widening...

Mitigated by likely further £ devaluation on No Deal.

And the fact that you’d surely get a deal eventually. But then not no deal.