Thread by @cppinvest

1/ I almost didn't want to write this thread, because it's just so absurd and stupid, but sometimes the absurdity is highlighted best with context. When you reexamine the numbers you almost can't help but laugh.

2/ Tezzla's enterprise value (equity + debt) has increased from $18.0 bil in 2013 to $66 bil today. Here is the progression:

2013: 18.6bil
2014: 30.1bil
2015: 32.7bil
2016: 36.6bil
2017: 61.0bil
2018: 66.3bil

3/ Fully diluted shares out have grown from 119mm in 2013 to 179mm today. Total debt has increased from $599mil to $9.4bil. Billion with a B.

4/ The jump from 2013 to 2014 is explained mostly by the promise of the Model S, whose sales have now plateaued and are arguably in decline. A slight bump followed in '15 and '16 with the intro of the hideous X and its sales overseas. But everyone believed the gross margin #s.

5/ 2016 is when it gets laughable. Doubt the Solar City acquisition was a driver of value then. No, the $25 bil jump in enterprise value was obviously Model 3 related. Oh, and the promise of profits and free cash flow.

6/ You all remember the Model 3, the car with limitless demand? So much demand Tesla included the mention of deposits in a prospectus. 2016 was also when Musk talked incessantly about 200k Model 3's and 500k total production.

7/ Since the announcement and rollout of the Model 3, Tezzla has added $30.0bil in total enterprise value. Meanwhile, not only weren't 200k Model 3's delivered in 2017, but barely 83k were by the end of 2018. So a miss of 100% in 2017 and 60% in 2018 based on 2016 guidance.

8/ Some analysts not named Jonas and Kallo got it.

9/ So where are we today? $30bil in enterprise value richer than 2014 when the S was rolled out in earnest. Flat sales from the flagship vehicles, chronically underspending on capex to preserve cash, no new models appreciably on the horizon, and a demand cliff for the 3.

10/ In case you had forgotten, the why is attached here. The Model 3 rollout was concurrent with Musk's giant comp plan. And his use of Tezzla as an ATM was memorialized. Sometimes one forgets the size of his liquidations.

11/ So we've seen enterp. val double - by $30bil - during a period when sales stalled for the Model S and the 3 missed targets by 80% cumulatively. The profits supposed to materialize in 2016 haven't (don't be fooled by Q3 and 4 2018), senior execs have left in droves. . .

lawsuits skyrocketed, DOJ formally investigating, rumors of DEA involvement exist, whistleblower actions are still live, they built a tent, inventory builds up everywhere, GF II is a scam.

Did I miss anything?

I mean, c'mon. This is the biggest joke in the cap mkts.

I should point out, the implied contribution for the $25 bil jump in enterprise value from the projected annual run rate of 600,000 cars sold was $41k per vehicle. That's what the market was telling you in 2016. Have they come anywhere close?