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Short thread about cooling 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 relationship. Macron’s decision not to participate in @MunichSecConf may be driven by many considerations. But cancelling a joint Merkel-Macron appearance is always a symbolic signal that will be carefully monitored in the rest of the EU. 1/8
Paris and Berlin currently disagree on NordStream, deepening of EMU, trade policy, EU security/defence, Saudi-Arabia, to name just a few. On these issues both sides play tactical games, instead of defining joint strategic goals. True friendship requires much more than that. 2/8
The EP campaign, where Merkel + Macron indirectly compete, clearly matters. Macron’s proximity to ALDE wasn't welcomed in Berlin. But this is only one factor. It seems to me Paris + Berlin no longer see the high value-added of their tandem, despite constant lip-service. 3/8
On NordStream, 🇫🇷 has now exposed the inherently contradictory position of the 🇩🇪 government. German benign neglect on the project was an implicit signal to rest of EU. A truly EU-oriented 🇩🇪 would have been more careful with NordStream. 🇫🇷 is asking the right questions. 4/8
On EMU + security, where a “grand bargain” could have been possible, both sides decided to stay behind red lines. Germany transformed the debate about EMU deepening into a battle about technicalities. On security, France showed too little willingness to think truly European. 5/8
In global politics 🇫🇷+ 🇩🇪 think quite differently about their position in the world. 🇩🇪 is still struggling to learn that 1989 was not the end of history (as Thomas Bagger elegantly argues), while 🇫🇷 still seems to ask whether EU is part of the answer or part of the problem. 6/8
I am concerned 2019 will continue to expose the new distance between 🇫🇷+🇩🇪. If they can’t agree on key policy issues, who in the EU can? In a few months, key decisions on EU top-jobs, EU budget + euro-area budget will need to be taken. We can't afford a weak 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 link. 7/8
Meanwhile, Putin, Orbán, Trump, Salvini and all the others will grab popcorn and watch.
Not good for the EU.
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Not good for the EU.
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