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Short Brexit thread.
There are 4 main scenarios at this stage. 1/ Amended May deal, most likely shifting towards Norway. 2/ Second referendum offering a 3-way choice via 2 questions. 3/ No deal. 4/ General election. NB: Prolonging Art50 is not a scenario, it’s a tool. 1/8
There are 4 main scenarios at this stage. 1/ Amended May deal, most likely shifting towards Norway. 2/ Second referendum offering a 3-way choice via 2 questions. 3/ No deal. 4/ General election. NB: Prolonging Art50 is not a scenario, it’s a tool. 1/8
There is currently no majority for any of the 4 scenarios above. This gets many to believe the no-deal scenario is increasingly likely as the default option. That’s logically right, but politically unconvincing. The no-deal group in Westminster is by far the smallest. 2/8
Key question is when political tactics will finally give way to strategy. This is particularly true for Corbyn, who holds the key to avoiding hard Brexit. He wants general elections but takes the risk of a hard Brexit. Labour needs to make sure this tactics, not craziness. 3/8
In such chicken games, knowing the real deadline is crucial. This is why prolonging Art50 is of limited help. But I stay convinced the two main groups, Labour and the reasonable Tories, will ultimately strike a deal. The referendum was irrational. Westminster politics is not. 4/8
The final deal is likely to be a May-turned-Norway thing or a 2nd referendum. The former is easier to reach, but the fight over who can claim political victory is bloody and could prevent success. The 2nd ref is the politically easiest and thus most likely solution. 5/8
Fallback is not the no-deal outcome but a general election to buy time. This is hard to swallow for the EU, but acceptable to a avoid a no-deal. Brussel, Berlin and Paris know this. But elections won’t solve the substantive issue. They just prolong the process. MPs know this. 6/8
So we will get a Norway style Brexit or a 2nd referendum leading to remain or the May deal. All of the above means Britain will stay a de facto member of the EU. Under the May deal, I believe the Norway-style transition will last forever. You can‘t unscramble scrambled eggs. 7/8
In sum, Britain has learned the hard way that Brexit is impossible. Britain will be in-but-out (remain) or out-but-in (Norway). For the EU, Norway would probably be preferable at this stage. For the UK, the only reasonable solution is to remain.
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