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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
No one seems to buy our forecast that for several weeks has shown the Lakers as underdogs to make the playoffs. I've been skeptical too since I've been burned by LeBron like 23 times. But man, they just lost by double digits to a Pelicans team without AD. 53eig.ht/2WgjnqT
On July 1, the Lakers had LeBron, *another* max contract spot, several very promising young players, and basically no bad contracts. Somehow, they wound up with no clearly above-average players other than LeBron. It's *really hard* to make so little of such a good situation.
Lakers are now 3-7 and have been outscored by 11 points per game (!) since the Anthony Davis trade demand.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
First person who I actually thought had a chance to win who isn't running.
Not clear what "lane" Brown was running in (in some ways, he's a testament to why the lanes thing is silly). But probably most helpful for candidates were hoping to score big in the Midwest. Certainly helpful for Klobuchar, for instance. Maybe for Biden, Buttigieg, maybe Beto.
Maybe not bad for Bernie either, I think there's some overlap there in terms of e.g. trying to cultivate support from organized labor.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Ugh, this is a bad use of MRP. (This tweet will have a very narrow audience.) The article makes it seem like the authors discovered *geographic* variation in this variable called political tolerance. But they don't do that *at all*. They found *demographic* variation instead.
You can impute what the geographic distribution of a variable would look like based on a region's demographics. But it's a pretty rough estimate. And it tells you *nothing* about the culture of that particular place or region.
A lot of quants who don't know any better think that with MRP, you can spin straw into gold. Instead, it's like spinning straw into... a straw basket. Which is actually sort of useful? But it's still straw. You haven't created any information, just reformulated it.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Random NBA Draft idea: If you "win" (finish top 4) in the lottery, your odds worsen in subsequent seasons.

e.g.: Get the 1st pick, lose 70% of your lottery balls (1 "ball" = 0.1% chance) for the next 3 drafts.
2nd pick, lose 50% of balls
3rd pick, lose 30%
4rd pick, lose 10%
The losses are cumulative, e.g. if you get the 2nd pick and 3rd pick in consecutive years, you lose 80% of your balls in the 3rd year. But you can't go into ball debt. You always keep a minimum of one ball (0.1%).
This is a Good Idea. It both punishes teams for **multi-year** 76ers-style tanking plans and evens out the luck quite a bit. It would be pretty easily to implement without making other structural changes to the draft.
Read 3 tweets

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Ralph Mason
@Ralph_MasonJr
Via Momo on Maginka "They got the 2 of the biggest and best jobs in the NBA, and I think there's been some lack of self awareness of how many other people wanted those jobs when they got it. Who wouldn't want to be present and GM of LAL? #Lakers
“Especially In LA with the young core they started to build. As u know back when they got the job it happened real fast, there wasn’t an audition for anybody else. Jeanie fired her brother and fired Mitch and hired Maginka right away”
“There was a lot of people hoping & trying to get a shot. When u walk into a situation where the rest of the league resents the fact that u got the job & got that job w/ the experience and background”

“In a lot of ways LAL job is a job u should work for 3 other org b4 u get it”
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White Squall
@WhiteSquall8
Q Prediction Proof #5

(1)Is Q or Q-anon really a member of Military Intelligence? Does he or she actually have the requisite Q Clearance that he/she claims to have? Are there any proofs?

Specifically, are there any “Prediction” that would prove Mil Intel?
(2) Now for a little background:

Twenty-three years ago in Davos, Switzerland, cyber-activist John Perry Barlow (1947 - 2018) championed a now-famous call to protect the sovereignty, liberty and independence of the internet from government.
(3) This is considered one of his greatest contributions which he dubbed a Declaration of Independence of Cyberspace

weforum.org/agenda/2018/02…
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wiiw
@wiiw_news
Today we release our annual @wiiw_news Autumn #Forecast Report, with macroeconomic projections for #CESEE out to 2020. Below, a thread on the highlights 1/13
#Growth still looks quite good for most, notable upgrades this time for #Poland, #Serbia, #Hungary. But downgrades for several #EU members, plus #Turkey, #Macedonia and #Belarus. 2/13
Over the #forecast period we expect best growth performance in #EUCEE and #WesternBalkans, although both will slow by 2020. Outlook for #CIS & #Ukraine weaker. 3/13
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lan Goodrum
@isgoodrum
One source, infinite stories.

A thread on "social credit" and news analysis.
As the media blitz against China's social credit system is in full swing yet again, let's critically examine the reporting being done by every single mainstream outlet.
Reminder that everything in this thread is still true and publications are including complete fabrications in their stories, most notably that abc.com.au piece making the rounds this week. The government isn't penalizing you for buying beer.

Read 16 tweets
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Alamo_on_the_rise
@AlamoOnTheRise
Several weeks ago, Trump said 200 soldiers were returned from North Korea. They weren't.

Last week, it was announced 55 boxes were handed over. Now we're learning only 1 American dog tag was included.

Who knows what's in these boxes. #NorthKoreaRemains
"Between 1990 & 1992, North Korea returned 46 sets of remains."

"every North Korean claim associated with human remains has shown to be false ... 46 sets are actually fragments of more than 70 individuals. Forensic analyses suggested none were American."
northkoreatimes.com/news/257544130…
It will likely take years to identify remains & premature to take a victory lap.

In 2007 N Korea claimed to return remains that were proven to be bones from animals & cadavers that had no DNA ties to any US servicemen. Source: af.reuters.com/article/worldN…
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The_War_Economy
@The_War_Economy
(1) A Spotlight On Willow Creek Mine.
(2) It is located in the Johnson and Campbell Countries in Wyoming's Powder River Basin.

uranium1.com/our-operations…
(3) It is approximately 105km north of the City of Casper, Wyoming.

uranium1.com/our-operations…
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