, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
#Nigeria’s GDP slowly picking up since the oil price crash of 2014-16 - up 1.9% in 2018 (0.8% the year before). And last quarter of 2018 was best in years at 2.4% - but not fast enough to deal with Unemployment
If we look at Nigeria's economy and compare it to other oil exporters - it's better than some (Eq Guinea in Africa, Venezuela in Latam), and worse than others. But none have done great since the oil price fall began in 2014
We think Nigeria will do better in the next four years - as we said in this thread - because oil prices won't repeat the fall of 2014-16 (nominally they can't fall $80 from peak to trough). But policy choices will determine *how* much better Nigeria does
Nigeria was the second biggest economy in Africa in 2018, using the market exchange rate of NGN362/$ (but we don't have final South Africa GDP figures yet), or the biggest economy using the fixed rate
The rise and fall in the oil price since 1970 is shown here - Buhari took power twice when oil prices were heading down
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