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So we had a fantastic presentation from @Sime0nStylites this morning and you can tell Brexit is a bloody mess by the simple fact that I'm none the wiser after it 😂
Seriously - my bottom line after listening to all the options and the mechanics of Parliament is the following:
There aren't that many stable equilibrium as possible outcomes:
1) No deal Brexit
2) Withdrawal agreement approved
3) the no customs union / single market red line is abandoned and this probably requires a mandate from general elections
1) No deal Brexit
2) Withdrawal agreement approved
3) the no customs union / single market red line is abandoned and this probably requires a mandate from general elections
4) remain
5) Irish reunification
Right now I think the ranking of likelihood of the various options is the same as the order I've presented the options. But mind you that's only Bayesian probabilities 😁
5) Irish reunification
Right now I think the ranking of likelihood of the various options is the same as the order I've presented the options. But mind you that's only Bayesian probabilities 😁
Last but not least, I've also realised how fragile the "deal approved" option is because even if it's approved the subsequent votes of the necessary legislation could totally derail the deal.
Market still complacent about all this if you ask me but that's not investment advice and I have no clue about FX markets
