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Only an idiot would try and predict how this current Brexit debacle will end. Here goes.
Hard Brexit, it seems, is all but inevitable if you look at the strategies the two sides have pursued so far.
EU strategic goals. 1) Frustrate Brexit. 2) Failing that make it as painful as possible. They can’t blink if they want the union to survive.
UK strategic goal. 1) Deliver Brexit. But to make any sense of it at all, you have to have freedom to make your own deals.
The backstop means the EU could permanently frustrate Brexit and prevent the UK making its own trade deals.
The huge problem is that neither side can give away anything without giving away everything.
So barring a change of leadership on either side, get ready for a very hard landing.
