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George Peretz QC🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿BL🇮🇪
@GeorgePeretzQC
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This is precisely the reason why it is so important to tie the Govt’s negotiating hands by law - eg mandating in the Implementation Bill a softer Brexit acceptable to a majority of the *HoC* (rather than to a majority of the ~70K, somewhat unrepresentative, Tory party members).
A new PM (whatever their position when bidding for Tory members’ votes) would be stuck with that mandate - unless they could overturn it by getting a different HoC in a general election.
The HoL amendments to the Trade Bill show the way. And the chaos of the last few months shows why the old “Govt sets its objectives and negotiates on its own, bringing it to the HoC for approval only at the end” model is now wholly dysfunctional.
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George Peretz QC🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿BL🇮🇪
@GeorgePeretzQC
This is (as I suppose you’d expect) an earth-shakingly bad diagnosis of what led us to our current state.
See this passage, where Davis explains how he thinks the next stage could be done better.
1. The reason why we are where we are is that the PM and Nick Timothy set her red lines without discussion with anyone. Those red lines, combined with the reality of the Irish Border, led ineluctably to the WA and current PD.
Read 12 tweets
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George Peretz QC🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿BL🇮🇪
@GeorgePeretzQC
The obvious response to this point, as recorded by @DrLeeJones, is that the U.K. Government controls the timetable of the Commons, and any legislation opposed by Government is strangled at birth. Observe too that the Council is composed of democratically-elected heads of Govt.
A much less silly point (also made by @DrLeeJones and other Lexit writers on @tfbrexit) is the difficulty of changing much EU legislation (QMV and unanimity in some areas + unanimity and complex ratification for Treaty change).
But it’s Eurosceptics who have always had the vapours whenever it has been suggested that changing EU law, in particular Treaty change, should be made easier.
Read 3 tweets
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George Peretz QC🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿BL🇮🇪
@GeorgePeretzQC
Important point here: the Government could say “Pass this deal, and we’ll then properly consult and try to reach agreement over the next few months on whether we want to reopen the PD”.
Bear in mind that no serious negotiation can happen with the EU until the autumn (new Commission). So there is some space for the national debate on the objectives for the final relationship that May disastrously refused to have in 2016/17.
Bear in mind too that a softer Brexit (eg EEA or a permanent CU) is likely to be available in principle (though important for those proposing those models to be honest about their implications and what is achievable).
Read 4 tweets

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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
If anyone screwed #Brexit then it's the ERG who turned a relatively pedestrian proposition into a full blown campaign to end formal relations with the EU in peacetime on the basis of a flimsy economic theory. Did they seriously expect parliament to roll over and let them do it?
The ERG have played double or quits because they are not interested in Brexit unless they can use it as a sandbox for their demented "free twade" ideas which no reputable trade professional thinks is credible. That's why they've passed up the only guarantee that we would leave.
You'll get no argument from me that May's deal is disappointing but it does in geopolitical terms get us on a different path and a new continuum outside of the EU. That relationship would be refined over time because that is the nature of complex bilateral relationships.
Read 8 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
A thought as we all desperately try to peer into crystal balls and predict the #Brexit What Next: Fact that talks between Cox and Commission not going well hardly surprising. He marched over to Brussels pushing for what EU always said it couldn’t and wouldn’t give on backstop 1
But this is not the end of the road. I’m not saying the EU will “blink”and give UK something as black and white/ backstop-weakening as a unilateral exit clause but what I am saying is: it is in EUs interest to keep up pressure on MPs 2
EU wants to see if - under pressure - MPs will start uniting more around one #Brexit direction: the Theresa May deal or a softer Brexit- The EU sees less likelihood right now of second referendum or no deal Brexit majority support 3
Read 6 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Graham Brady says here: “How to bypass the backstop and come up with a solution? Crucially we don’t need to hammer out those details before tomorrow.” With 29 March fast approaching, when should these details, elusive during 18 months of EU-UK #Brexit negotiations, be hammered? 1
EU and UK negotiatiors spent months thinking round bilaterally acceptable solutions to the backstop. They arrived at current document. Reminder: the UK-wide customs arrangement with the EU featured in the backstop was requested by HMG not Brussels 2
Withdrawal Agreement already says EU open to alternatives to backstop eg using technology if and when viable BUT EU no deal planning documents clearly say in case if no deal #Brexit some physical checks will have to take place. Technology alone doesnt cut the mustard for the EU 3
Read 8 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
There are some very optimistic takes that a no deal #brexit is practically off the table because a majority in the house of Commons is against it. I am much more sceptical a no deal can be avoided, for five reasons:
1 Beware of confirmation bias: As late as when the withdrawal agreement was signed in November, many people in Berlin were convinced that the threat of no deal would be enough to get it passed. MPs would never risk no deal I was told when forecasting a strong rejection.
2 Don't overestimate resistance to No Deal. Over 60% of Conservative voters prefer a no deal Brexit to the deal and remaining, while even many Tory MPs regard the costs of no deal as overblown. It will not be easy to get a workable majority FOR an alternative.
Read 6 tweets
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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
Update on the Grieve amendment: new wording to be laid by govt in Lords. Expect Nov 30 to disappear but Feb 15 to remain. Govt will claim victory because MPs will no longer take over negotiations BUT fundamental point remains: there will be a vote on no deal
The importance of this should not be overlooked. It is the remainers’ insurance against the Brexiteers bagging the EU Withdrawal Bill and then blowing up the negotiations by voting against the final deal in order to get a pure “no deal” Brexit
The amendment likely to be agreed by the govt today therefore means a softer Brexit acceptable to a majority in the Commons is more likely (though still far from certain, obviously)
Read 3 tweets
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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
THREAD: Disagreement on the ECJ's role remains one of the biggest hurdles in #Brexit talks. This is how to vault it.
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/d…
There will be fun graphics and a moody photo of me in a carefully chosen shirt along the way. Stay with me.
Basics: UK and EU need a dispute resolution mechanism to sort disagreements about the meaning and implementation of the Brexit deal(s).
Read 26 tweets

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