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We may (or may not) have a #Brexit withdrawal deal soon. Everyone is obsessing about day to day political tactics. This is short sighted. We need to think ahead. If we get a deal what would follow? Here is a thread on this.
With a deal, in the short term nothing will change & everything will change. Nothing, because in a transition period we remain aligned to EU law & regulation, though without a voice in decisions. Everything, because we will be legally out & there will be no way back for years.
Looking further ahead, we have not imagined, let alone thought through, the political, economic, social & psychological adjustments invoved in this reversal of over 40 years of national strategy, nor the national identity we want to have.
There will be more political turmoil at home. The Brexit process has exhausted and damaged the political system. The traditional parties are fracturing. Pubic confidence is low.
A deal could give Theresa May a short term boost but the knives are out. Conservative Brexiters will presumably want their candidate in the driving seat for the next phase of Brexit negotiations to determine the new relationship. That will divide the party further
Jeremy Corbyn may no longer be able to use Brexit to mask the troubles of his leadership. It remains to be seen whether the Independent Group will become a major realignment of our politics. At least there will be further debate about reform of the centre.
Brexit itself will be far from over. The big choice about what sort of relationship with the EU we want remains unanswered. So national divisions over Europe will still be open. This is about much more than just future trade arrangements. It is about deep political convictions.
The EU will change. Losing the UK is a big setback. EU leaders will want to show that the project remains vigorous. The balances of power will shift. EU economic policy may become less liberal. The EP elections & formation of the new Commission will be important indicators
The UK will need to find new ways of engaging with the EU. We will be in the corridor, not at the table. We will need a big embassy in Brussels seeking to influence decision from the outside. Business & other actors will look for new ways to engage.
Domestic renewal will be the top priority for any government. Fixing the neglected roof back home. Quality of jobs, public services, security, education & skills, opportunity, poverty. Whoever is in power, we should expect more economic interventionism from government.
Relations with other countries will need to be rethought. So far we have heard bullish headlines from government about Global Britain & UK soft power, but less substance on what the priority policies & relationships will be & how we will leverage our influence outside the EU.
There has been much rose-tinted talk about new trade opportunities. We need deep reflection on our future internationl economic priorities & how we can influence a modern international trade & regulatory agenda in a world dominated by the US & China (& the EU).
So, many challenges lie ahead. Any suggestion that we will be able to forget about Brexit if we get a withdrawal deal is wrong. Above all, we must urgently work to rebuild confidence in the enfeebled governance of our country.
