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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
"Thinking about #Brexit, would you now support or oppose a public vote on Britain's future relationship with rest of EU?"

Support 48% (+6)
Oppose 36% (-5)
Don't know 15% (-3)

Remainers 75% "support", Leavers 64% "oppose"
Lab 66% "support", Con 64% "oppose"

YouGov Mar 15
And .. "if there were a public vote, & choice were to stay in EU or leave on Brexit terms negotiated by gvt, how would you vote?"

Stay in EU 47%
Leave on terms negotiated 32%
Wouldn't vote 10%
Don't know 10%
Refused 2%

15% of Leavers say they would not vote at such a referendum
If instead the public vote was stay in the EU vs leave without a Brexit deal:

Stay in EU 47%
leave without deal 38%
Wouldn't vote 5%
Don't know 9%
Refused 1%

Leavers break 77% for "no deal", Remainers 86% for "stay in EU"
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More from @GoodwinMJ see all

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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
What we are learning about Britain on #BrexitDay -and why I am worried -a short thread
Since the referendum, we've had several bits of research which suggest that Britain is becoming more polarised and divided
Most recently, work by @NatCen and @whatukthinks has shown that our Brexit identities as Remainers or Leavers are strong, perhaps stronger even than our 'traditional' party political identities
Read 17 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
"Do you think the following would/would not honour result of 2016 EU referendum?"

Having another referendum
Would 23%
Would not 58%
Don't know 19%

Leaving with PM May deal
Would 35%
Would not 36%
DK 28%

Leaving without deal on WTO
Would 41%
Would not 33%
DK 26%

YouGov Mar 11
Leavers break 83% against EU referendum, 40-37 against May deal and 64% for a no-deal WTO Brexit

Interestingly, Remainers break 42-36 AGAINST idea 2nd EURef would "honour" the 2016 result, 37-35 for May's deal but 51-26 against no-deal. Large numbers of don't knows though
The big challenge for the Conservatives of course is that their voters often break for the one thing that is about to be taken off the table, a no-deal Brexit. In the poll above, 61% of Con voters say no-deal "honours result". More here -> unherd.com/2019/03/tories…
Read 3 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
"If you HAD to choose, which would you prefer?"

Accept #Brexit deal & leave EU 60%
Leave EU without a deal 40%

83% Remainers say accept deal & leave, 63% Leavers say 'No Deal'
75% Labour say accept deal & leave, 57% Tories say 'No Deal'

YouGov Feb 28 #marr #ridge
"If you HAD to choose, which would you prefer?"

Leave EU with no deal 46%
New referendum on whether or not to leave 54%

85% Remainers say "new referendum", 79% Leavers say "No Deal"
75% Labour say "new referendum", 72% Tories say "No Deal"
"If you HAD to choose, which would you prefer?"

Accept draft Brexit deal & leave EU 49%
New referendum on whether or not to leave 51%

76% Remainers say new referendum, 76% Leavers say accept deal & leave
67% of Labour say new referendum, 72% Tories say accept deal & leave
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU opinion divided this morning: those who fear creeping inevitability of no deal #Brexit , others are upbeat: say: the negotiated Brexit deal is the last option standing; others see possibility of longer Brexit extension for general elex/2nd ref /1
Ambassadors of the 27 EU countries meet in Brussels this morning to debate the #Brexit What's Next. Will discuss ongoing no deal preparations. Concerns in rest of EU that Dublin hasn't made sufficient preparations /2
While Dublin wants to insist there will be no hard border even in case f no deal #Brexit - others in EU - incl big player Germany - worrying about protecting single market if 500km border stays open. Berlin insists checks will be necessary though can be away from border /3
Read 4 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
Read 16 tweets
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Lords EU Committee
@LordsEUCom
The EU Committee has today published its report on #Brexit and the European Investment Bank @EIB, which the UK will lose access to after it leaves the EU: publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ld…
Find our main conclusions below 👇1/6
The @EIB has provided almost €50 billion of funding to the UK over the last 10 years, mainly to infrastructure. This has covered a range of different sectors 2/6 Chart showing the volume of EIB funding received by the UK across different sectors since 2008
But there has been a marked decline in funding from the @EIB since the #Brexit referendum and triggering of Article 50. This has fallen 87% since 2016 3/6 Chart showing EIB lending to the UK over the last 10 years, including a marked decline since 2016
Read 6 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Lilico - the intellectual wing of the #Brexit movement
Warning, could be a long thread!

@andrew_lilico is in the spotlight today for a fairly dispicable tweet which I won't repeat here.

But Lilico is also a "leading" Brexit economist who put together an interesting article
@andrew_lilico 2) here is the article in question, from April 2017, and is a great example of what brexiters were selling us before reality set in & they desperately pivoted from full on "we can have it all" cakeism to "no deal? No biggie" snake oil

reaction.life/seven-key-brit…
@andrew_lilico 3) in the article he lays out 7 "perspectives", 7 British viewpoints all based on the "they need us more than we need them" trade deficit

Below is my take on those 7 perspectives, which were arrogant then but utterly ludicrous 20 months later

musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/sev…
Read 16 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
#Brexit as a concept is increasingly drifting from having anything whatsoever to do with the mechanics of leaving the EU. It is now primarily a culture war and both sides will totally ignore the details except for when they are temporarily convenient.
The consequence of this is that our future relationship with the EU will be just as readily ignored as our activities as a member. They said Brexit would make us isolated, self absorbed and insular but it seems that was always the case and there are no signs of that changing.
As ever the details will be delegated to officials and civil servants while our establishment politics drifts further into its cycle of decline, unable to usefully influence external events making us entirely passive and reactive to events rather than self-interestedly engaged.
Read 17 tweets

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