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Behind this: the German way to do military affairs has reached a dead end.
The German way: reacting to demands by allies, primarily US and occasionally France.
Dead end: "sorry we're not convinced" that spending more is necessary.
No narrative there to convince majority.
The German way: reacting to demands by allies, primarily US and occasionally France.
Dead end: "sorry we're not convinced" that spending more is necessary.
No narrative there to convince majority.
Neither the Russian threat, nor Chinese assertiveness, nor chaos in the South, nor US and French push to spend more convincing enough for Germans to seriously invest into defense. Widely assumed that non-military means are enough to deal with challenges.
Other major players have a will to power based in national history and political culture, Germany doesn't. For decades this was exactly what neighbors and major powers wanted to achieve: pacifying the Germans by turning their instincts away from the hard power.
Now this success story becomes a problem, as the biggest economy in Europe fails to understand that the liberal - free and open - order is under threat and needs to be backed up by power.
For decades, Germany lived in a symbiotic relationship with the guardian of the liberal order, the US. Today this relationship is changing, and Germany needs to develop a sense of power itself - or accept the decline of the order which is vital for its well-being.
As the unwillingness to invest seriously in military affairs shows, German mentality hasn't changed yet. It's bigger role - since unification - hasn't lead to more assertiveness in projecting power, just to more assertiveness to say "no" to allies who want more from Germany.
Yet as the biggest economy in Europe, Germany has to deal with the new great power-competition, especially with Russia and China. It has to take a stance on the major global issues and act accordingly. Without being equipped with hard power, it won't be taken seriously.
Of course nobody wants a Germany that is overly assertive. Getting the balance right is the challenge. Yet with NATO and European cooperation there are frameworks to restrain Germany. And as @radeksikorski memorably said: "I fear German power less than her inactivity."
