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On 4 April NATO will become 70. On this occasion, a few thoughts about the next decades. There are three preconditions for NATO to exist and flourish. Thread.
US must be interested in having willing and capable allies in Europe; must be interested in a permanent European presence, in other words, must be willing to go beyond a strategy of offshore-balancing or beyond isolationism, or a hemisphere-only strategy;
Europeans must be interested in defending their independence against Russian influence and aggression, and European powers must be unable to deter Russia (especially on the crucial level of nuclear deterrence);
Russia must be willing and capable to pursue an aggressive, implicitly or explicitly hostile strategy towards its European neighbors and Europe in general, it must present a clear threat to European security and independence.
