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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Lost in the avalanche of Brexit Day/Brexit vote news yesterday was the fact that the UK economy grew at its slowest pace since 2012 last year, with just 1.4% growth. It was also the first full year of business investment decline since 2009.
aol.co.uk/news/2019/03/2…
At the same time, the GDP growth forecast for 2019 was cut to just 1.2% i.e. even grimmer than last year's poor figure "as a consequence of extended Brexit uncertainties weighing on business activities and investment in particular, as well as weakened global growth."
So next time people say to you "hey, the economy's doing fine despite Brexit", it *really* isn't. More people may be in low paid precarious jobs, but the underlying economy is in a terrible state. And then there's all the damage Brexit is causing...
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
I've heard quite a few Brexiters complain in the last few days that "If Remain won, we'd still be arguing about what that meant too." No, we absolutely wouldn't! Remain required no action other than a gentle shoulder shrug "hmm, ok, that's over and decided" and go about our day.
Remain was (is) the status quo. All we had to do was do absolutely nothing whatsoever. Our EU membership would have continued exactly as it had before, and politicians would have been free to focus on the NHS, schools, tackling homelessness, improving mental health etc.
It's hard to believe they're stupid enough not to understand they're creating a false equivalence, so the obvious conclusion is that they're deliberately trying to rile up and mislead the public.
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Let's make them famous!
"Conservative leadership candidates Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are facing growing calls to account for illegal behaviour by the official Vote Leave Brexit campaign.
#marr #ridge #pienaar #bbcsp
theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/m…
Background... At exactly the same time things were reaching a peak on Brexit-Day-that-wasn't, this happened: "Vote Leave has dropped its appeal against a £61,000 fine for electoral offences committed during the Brexit referendum."
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
Re. Vote Leave: "This is the group that has met every day during the campaign to plot strategy and decide on the messages to put out to the media."
Within that group:
- Michael Gove
- Boris Johnson
- Gisela Stuart
So BJ & MG were meeting *daily* with VL!
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Read 5 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
So much Brexit stuff could happen in the next 48 hours, it's hard to know where to even begin. (Mind you, we could still be stuck in Groundhog Day at the end of it all.)
1) Watch out for various Tory MPs to stake out positions in the Sunday papers and on the politics shows.
You may see a renewal of calls to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April, which may be a precursor to an overt attempt to sabotage the last couple of weeks of Brexit to trigger that default outcome. And keep an eye on Theresa May to see if she becomes a full-blooded "no dealer"
There may also be a chorus of voices around softer forms of Brexit, and renewed calls for cross-party collaboration.
2) GE klaxon... somebody's bound to call for one. You just know it.
3) Resignations? If it looks like we're no-deal bound, Remainers may quit the cabinet in droves
Read 7 tweets

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Mark Stone
@Stone_SkyNews
Ahead of @theresa_may’s latest visit to Brussels, where are we with #Brexit?!

A not-so-short thread which I hope simplifies a seemingly never-ending process but one which could have an abrupt end in less than 40 days. /1
Some context first: The key problem is the backstop - the Irish Protocol to us its proper name

It’s a section of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) - a 585-page legal text which, together with a shorter Political Declaration (PD), forms the divorce treaty between UK & the EU. /2
The two texts - the WA & the PD - were the consequence of nearly two years of negotiations.

They were finalised + agreed by both the UK government (@10DowningStreet) and the EU (@EU_Commission) late last year. /3

(Skip to tweet 10 in the thread if you know this background!)
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Dr Adi MacArtney
@Science_Hooker
𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲
This thread is entirely 2018 analysis and as unbiased as I can make it. Collated as I find a lack of signposts to the raw analysis in the media and political discourse, which are high on spin low on facts. Hopefully this will be helpful.
Tetlow G., Alex Stojanovic A. (2018). Understanding the economic impact of Brexit. 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡. This report attempts to make clear the assumptions that different studies have made, what evidence they have to support them. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
Gudgin G., Coutts K., Gibson N., Buchanan J. (2018) The macro-economic impact of Brexit: using the CBR macro-economic model of the UK economy (UKMOD)𝐽𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑓 𝑆𝑒𝑙𝑓-𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐸𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐𝑠 2:7-49
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#brexit 33
Germany earned €2.9 billion from Greece’s debt crisis, their supposed equal members

@EURACTIV euractiv.com/section/econom…
#Brexit 34
Multinationals avoid the total cost2UK of Freedom of Movement & Freedom of Establishment is about £40 Bn/YEAR. The effect on UK public finances is 2drain the resources available 4 OUR pensions & benefits in the future. Get ready 2work until you drop!
globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…£30bn-cost-of-EU-migration-FINAL.pdf
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Peter Geoghegan
@PeterKGeoghegan
HUGE NEWS: Electoral Commission finds Vote Leave broke law during #Brexit ref, issuing fines and reporting 2 people - Darren Grimes + Vote Leave's 'responsible person' David Halsall - to police. Full report is stinging ( electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/…) Here's some key points (thread)
Just before the Brexit vote fashion student Darren Grimes was 'given' £675k. In fact this money was spent on his behalf as @openDemocracy showed last year opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/p…. Elec Comm found that this spending was part of a' common plan with Vote Leave." Which is illegal
Before he teamed up w/Vote Leave Darren Grimes had raised the princely sum of £21.51 - then he got £675k. Grimes told us this was his spending. EC found this 'was substantially inaccurate reporting that has resulted in a lack of transparency about whose spending this was.'
Read 18 tweets
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The Leave Alliance
@LeaveHQ
1. Our current thinking is that the Chequers plan is totally unworkable. It is impractical and incompatible with EU and international law. The EU will reject it - but not immediately. It will use the time to plan for a no deal #Brexit
2. The general feeling, thanks to the propaganda of the Tory right is that the proposal is about as far as the UK can bend. This is odd because the proposal is not entirely dismiliar to some of the nonsense cooked up by pro-Brexit think tanks. Mrs May cannot win.
3. Mrs May could even adopt their alternative plans with some adjustments and the ultras would shift the goalposts again. They would cry betrayal at any concession. They are unappeasable. There is no deal they will support because they do not want a deal.
Read 20 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

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