Thread by @ChrisJames_90

THREAD 🧵🤓

We’re on to Round 2 of #IndicativeVotes today so I’ve updated my explainer #IV2

🗳 What are #Brexit Indicative Votes?

🤔 How will the process work?

💡What ideas have been tabled?

⏳ What might happen next?

🚨 Hopefully it’s worth a couple of minutes ☕️ 🚆 🚌

Last week MPs debated alternatives to the Prime Minister’s #Brexit plan.

This happened because MPs backed an idea by Conservative MP & former Minister, Sir Oliver Letwin, to give control of Commons business to backbench MPs so they could put forward their visions for #Brexit

Parliamentary procedure is full of quirks, but giving backbench MPs control of the Commons in this way isn’t the norm.

MPs chose to disapply a Commons rule - Standing Order 14(1) - which says that the Government usually (largely) controls what business is debated in the House.

While different to what MPs usually have to contend with, the Letwin Indicative Votes process is relatively simple.

In order for the process to start to happen, MPs will first have to consider what’s called a Business of the House Motion.

This effectively sets the rules governing timings, conduct and votes.

For this round of votes:

🔸MPs will have until 6pm to debate the rules

🔸The Speaker will choose which alternative #Brexit plans will be debated

🔸Debates on these can go until 8pm

🔸30 minute voting period

🔸Third round of indicative votes scheduled for Wednesday 3 April

So far so good?

Last time out, 16 options were put forward, and the Speaker selected eight to be debated & voted on.

None commanded a majority, but a Customs Union came the closest.

This time there are just eight options, and it’s likely the Speaker will choose to whittle them down to 3 or 4 for votes.

Below are the options that have been tabled this time.

AMENDMENT A - Baron

🔸Approve the PM’s deal if the Northern Ireland backstop is changed and leave the EU on 22 May 2019

AMENDMENT B - Baron

🔸UK would leave the EU without a deal on 12 April 2019

AMENDMENT C - Clarke

🔸The UK would have to negotiate a Customs Union with the EU

🔸Parliament would have to pass an Act of Parliament committing to this

AMENDMENT D - Boles

🔸Common Market 2.0

🔸Accede to EFTA

🔸Trigger EEA

🔸Remain in Single Market

🔸Supersede NI Protocol

🔸Seek a negotiating mandate from the House for next steps

AMENDMENT E - Kyle/Wilson

🔸Only approve a deal after a #PeoplesVote

AMENDMENT F - Jones/Grieve

🔸Commit to a referendum to prevent a No Deal scenario

AMENDMENT G - Cherry

🔸If No Deal two days before #Article50 deadline, Government must seek extension

🔸If No Deal one day before #Article50 deadline, MPs must vote whether to leave without deal

🔸If MPs reject No Deal; revoke Article 50

🔸Public Inquiry & Referendum

AMENDMENT H - Eustice

🔸Respect the referendum result

🔸Continue with EEA; take steps to make that operable UK law

🔸Re-join EFTA

🔸Negotiate new protocols on Northern Ireland border/trade

The Speaker is likely to base his choice of which options to put to MPs based on how they did last time.

Expect to see the options of a #CustomsUnion, #PeoplesVote, and leaving with No Deal all on the ballot paper MPs get.

Not everyone’s preferred choice will be chosen.

The voting process won’t be like what you may have seen on TV before.

Instead of walking through the ‘Aye’ or ‘Noe’ lobbies, MPs will be given a ballot paper which lists all of the options the Speaker has selected.

They will have 30 minutes to choose which options they support.

Just like last time, MPs will be able to back as many options as they like.

After 30 minutes, the votes will be counted and the result should be declared in the Chamber by the Speaker at around 9.30pm.

How each MP voted will be recorded and published as usual.

It’s possible that this time, one of the options might get a majority.

It’s important to remember these votes aren’t binding.

This means the Government doesn’t have to implement the result, but whatever happens, it’s highly likely to shape the #Brexit process.

If the Government supports the choice made by MPs, it will probably ask the EU if it can add it to #Brexit deal which has been negotiated, and try to pass the whole deal before the end of the week.

Even if it is approved, MPs will still have to pass a law as well.

If the Government doesn’t back the choice, they will have to choose whether to:

🔸Put forward the old deal again (hard given Parliament’s rules)

🔸Seek a long extension (we stay in the EU & have to vote in EU elections)

🔸Leave with No Deal on 12 April

🔸Stop Brexit

The Prime Minister has been clear she won’t stop Brexit, and MPs have been clear they stop us leaving with No Deal.

This means MPs could be left with the option of a long delay to Brexit, or voting for the deal on the table.

If there’s still deadlock, there could be a general election...

Regardless of what happens, it’s certain to be a busy day for Parliamentary Procedure geeks 🤓.

(Don’t worry. We love it!)