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There is a majority against no-deal in the HOC. But that's in the abstract. Is there a majority to revoke (consequence of being against no-deal in extremis)? Who knows!
Even if that majority exists too, what MPs don't seem to have fully grasped is just how unkillable no-deal is.
Even if that majority exists too, what MPs don't seem to have fully grasped is just how unkillable no-deal is.
It's worse than a cockroach. No-deal will happen by default. It requires no action from Parliament to happen. Instead, Parliament must proactively act to *stop* it.
But to do that MPs have to have control of business AND pass a binding motion. None of this weak indicative stuff.
But to do that MPs have to have control of business AND pass a binding motion. None of this weak indicative stuff.
They have control of business now, but they might not get it again (needs to be reaffirmed every time) if their purpose was to pass a binding "revoke Article 50" rather than conduct more indicative votes.
And even if they somehow got permission for that, could they really win that vote. Tories know that revocation would destroy the support of their base, and lose them probably a decade or so of GEs because their voters feel so let down. Imagine LibDems and tuition fees x1,000!
And what if Theresa May and or the ERG and or other factions try to deliberately obstruct the process, by prorogue of Parliament, filibusters or other tricks? Can MPs really be confident of blocking no-deal when facing an antagonistic PM working against them?
That's been half the problem: Remain MPs are too rational, too sensible, too logical, too *nice*. They know they can win any fair fight. And they'd be right. But what if it isn't fair? What if it's the dirtiest fight the UK has ever seen? Can they still triumph?
Or do they have to take a leaf out of their opponents' book, and plan for the dirty deeds in advance, and counter them before they even happen?
They need to wake up and get a clue right now. Because even at this late stage, many still believe their colleagues across the HOC will do the right thing when push comes to shove. What they fail to grasp is many MPs would move heaven and earth to get no-deal, the UK be damned.
The best boxer in the world will win any fair fight. He'll never win a fight in which the ref is crooked, his opponent is armed with knives & knuckle dusters, and has two ringers in the audience ready to dart out & grab the boxer's legs so that his opponent gets clean swings in.
