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Dire Tory performance with young voters is I think driven by 8 factors. 1) % of electorate which is BME 2) Expansion of Higher Education 3) Changing av age of areas 4) ⬆️House price/income ratios 5) Tuition Fees 6) Financial Crash 7) Brexit 8) Rise of Social Liberalism (1/10) 
#1 Any one of these factors would be a problem. Their combination is creating a conveyor belt towards oblivion for the party. Younger people are disproportionately BAME, and older voters white – part of the reason the age curve is dramatic is a direct ethnicity effect (2/10)
#2 The expansion of higher education is dramatically shifted the life outcomes, values, debt levels and worldviews of different generations. Almost the entire difference in propensity to vote by age in The EU Referendum is explained by education levels and qualification (3/10)
#3 Young people are increasingly being drawn to cities – gutting small towns of a sense of the future+working age pop. Living in urban areas has demonstrable effects on long-term voting patterns, shifting them left. Not creating rural opportunity has political consequences (4/10)
#4 Growing House prices vs wages ratio has decimated home ownership (driver of voting Tory). You can get a good steer on the long term Tory fortunes 2010-2017 by seat by looking at average house price vs income ratios. The higher the ratio, the worse the Tory performance. (5/10)
#5 The introduction of Tuition Fees was the turnkey to @LibDems collapse. This helped Cameron on a seat basis in 2015, but it long-term decoupled 25% of the electorate (disproportionately young) from their political anchoring. By 2017 many of them joined @jeremycorbyn (6/10)
#6 The Financial Crash has dramatically altered views on capitalism. Past generations had Winter of Discontent/fall of the Berlin wall as their lodestar. This new generation has corrupt banks, tax dodging companies, and soaring CEO pay as their formative political context (7/10)
#7 Young people do not like Brexit. The Conservative party is becoming the party of Brexit. Young People therefore are increasingly turning against the Conservatives. Just 6% of 18-24 and 18% of 25-49 think that No deal is a good outcome for the U.K. (8/10)
#8 Its almost always Tory MPs who stand against progressive issues (assisted dying/same-sex marriage). These are ethical/political propositions disproportionately supported by the young - and in time by the majority of society (9/10)
The solution to the issues the party has with younger voters will have to be multi-faceted. A good to start answering this would be to read this @ukonward Report written by @NeilDotObrien, @Will_Tanner + myself ukonward.com/wp-content/upl… (10/10)
