, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
I'm not convinced that the political parties understand where "Middle England/Wales" exists. Analysis indicates Ipswich, Sevenoaks, Broxtowe, Wrexham, Newark, Preston, C.Croydon, Basingstoke, Blackley & Broughton + Warrington South are the best seats to understand #EURef (1/7)
This collection of seats represent (by that order) the closest reflection to the average distribution of the Leave vote in England/Wales. It's not the same as picking a seat made up entirely of smaller areas all of which voted 53 Leave 47 Remain (2/7)
Media/politicos often don't get this, they should be visiting parliamentary seats which have a wide degree of diversity within them to test the political temperature. Watford - which nearly made the list - was wisely used for @voteLeave Focus Groups (3/7)
These 10 seats are ones that politicians/newspapers should be visiting for Vox Pops/Focus Groups. @centrefortowns have been highlighting this for some time. Instead SW1 media reel out same tropes viz a viz heavily Leave "left behind" areas and Remainy city centres. Boring. (4/7)
What's fascinating about these 10 seats is that 3 of them switched from Conservative to Labour at the 2017 Election - Warrington South, Croydon Central and Ipswich. Corbyn's Labour have a much better handle on Middle England/Wales then many realise (5/7)
There has been significant change to the Leave vote since 2016. Estimates from @chrishanretty /@JustinIbbett about 2016/2018 Leave vote show how Labour Leavers are much more likely to have switched to Remain, and Tory Remainers to Leave. This had a big impact at #GE2017 (6/7)
If a Brexit deal is secured by the Gov't we should not rule out a very boring story coming out of the past 5 years. The traditional Tory and Labour coalitions could regroup with a new major 3rd party forming which looks +feels alot like the 2010 Lib Dems. Back to the Future (7/7)
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