Thread by @Noahpinion

Today's @bopinion post is about whether the U.S. is "full", as Trump says.

In fact, it's in danger of emptying out.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Physically, the U.S. has a low population density compared to most other rich nations.

Of course, physical space might be less important than the food you can produce from the land.

But the U.S. is arguably the strongest agricultural country on the planet.

investopedia.com/articles/inves…

And look at our water resources!!

We're even self-sufficient in fossil fuels!
oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-O…

In fact, the U.S. isn't even close to being full.

And population growth is slowing.

brookings.edu/blog/the-avenu…

Why is U.S. population growth slowing?

One reason is the end of mass Mexican immigration.

But another reason is low fertility.

The U.S. used to have high fertility for a rich country. But now it's reverting to the mean.

Is low fertility just an artifact of the Great Recession and the pessimism that followed?

Maybe. But much of the decline is due to Hispanic fertility converging to the white/black/Asian level.

That's a change that's not likely to be reversed anytime soon.

And some are predicting that the U.S. fertility rate will fall even further, to Germany/Japan levels: aei.org/publication/de…

A shrinking population would mean a smaller number of working Americans supporting an ever-greater number of elderly retirees.

It would put strains on Social Security and pensions, and make companies reluctant to invest in America.

And that's just at the national level!

Some states are losing population. For example, New York and Illinois.

Many distressed cities and rural regions are also emptying out.

nytimes.com/2019/04/09/ups…

So there are places in America that are desperately in need of people. And if immigration and fertility stay low or fall even more, there will be more such places.

But meanwhile, a few "superstar" cities like San Francisco and New York ARE looking a bit full.

Since San Francisco & co. look like they aren't willing to build massive amounts of new housing, we need to send people - and economic activity - to the distressed, declining areas.

One way to do this is region-based immigration. Check this out:
eig.org/wp-content/upl…

Sending immigrants to America's struggling places can save them from decline and collapse, and make the distribution of prosperity in the country more even:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Note that this doesn't just mean sending immigrant engineers to Detroit or Cleveland.

Even manual laborers can revitalize dying small towns all across America! houstonchronicle.com/local/gray-mat…

So the U.S. is very very far from full.

Bring in the immigrants! Let them pump life back into the American towns and cities that need it most.

(end)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…