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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Early hours UK ambassador to EU Sir Tim Barrow writes to the EU Council to confirm legally the Brexit extension:
This means that the EU27 decision subsequently agreed with UK has the status of a full EU Council decision and is this EU law... this is absolutely technically confirmed when it is published in the Official Journal of the EU later today
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This is the change to Brexit date in EU law - extended to 31st October. Comes into force “on day of adoption” - ie today when OJEU publishes. Shall cease to apply 31 May if there’s no ratification by 22 May and no EP elections (elections are already in UK law as 23rd May)...
“flextension bit” - ie we can leave earlier if WA passed in UK and EP - is not in legal declaration at end it is “recalled” existing A50 (3) allows for it to come into force “on earlier date” - ie 1st of month following both Parliaments passing it and UK ratification act too
But legally exit date in EU law is 31st October
The paragraph pointing UK towards revocation contained in the draft summit conclusions on Tuesday was removed by EU27 Leaders
... so on UK law exit date - the Cooper Letwin Bill (government amendment) changes the exit date SI procedure. Bottom line - there’ll be no vote required before tomorrow. It is a negative S.I. - might be prayed against and pushed to a vote after Easter.

SI tabled v soon tho.
This is the Government amendment to cooper Letwin, which changed law to mean no vote on Brexit date change SI required in Parliament before tomorrow - but it does need to be tabled.
Further - I expect Government to announce that the House will rise later today for Easter recess, after PM’s statement - SI will have to be laid very quickly.
Alas - didn’t read carefully enough - CORRECTION - EU Council conclusions do point out UK can “revoke its notification at any time” - statement of legal fact since ECJ ruling in January - but contested by Commission then - not part of last month’s communique, now endorsed by EU28
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Chancellor of the Exchequer @PhilipHammondUK - “I intend to resign to Theresa May.. before she goes to the Palace” should Boris Johnson become Conservative leader because of his requirement of a “loyalty pledge” to accept a possible No Deal Brexit on 31st October.
Chancellor: “you cannot get a deal by 31st October”
Chancellor says he would accept No Deal if the new PM managed to persuade Parliament to vote for it.
Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Irish Foreign min/ Tanaiste @simoncoveney preemptively telling #Marr that a PM Johnson should not expect more than PM May. Says No Deal will only happen if House of Commons and a new PM chooses it.

Message directly to MPs already repeatedly voting against No Deal.
important bit of Coveney was description of Alt Arrangements as “Effectively meaning a border on island of Ireland away from the border which would fundamentally disrupt the all Ireland economy”.

rejecting concept not just of checks at border but of moving checks away from it...
This came up, as I reported on Today last week, within some of the Government’s own Alternative Arrangements Working Groups - concern raised at downplaying of Joint Report 2017 in those group...
Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW: No Deal Brexit forecast to lead to a £30 billion a year hit to the public finances per year, according to the first official projection from the Government’s independent udgetary watchdog - the OBR. Fall in tax revenues falling way short of money saved on EU fees. /1
OBR have done the first detailed fiscal projection of every tax and spending item, based on IMF No Deal situation - so this is not Treasury.

Income tax & NICs - hit by cyclical downturn - 16.5bn a year down from 2020-21
Capital taxes - falls in asset prices see 10b a year fall
But debt interest is lower because interest rates are predicted to fall, even as borrowing shoots up - £5bn less a year

Customs duties boosts receipts by 6bn a year next fiscal year then 10bn. But limited impact on borrowing, because tariff income already accounted for - OBR
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU emergency #brexit summit 10 April will start 6pm in Brussels. The PM will be invited to ‘engage’ with the 27 EU leaders +inform them of her plans/requests. She’ll then like last time be asked to leave the room while the 27 try to come to unified position required by EU law /1
Leaders are divided. No one likes idea of long #brexit delay - if PM asks for it - and it only takes one country (France in frontline) to say no - as EU decision must be unanimous BUT /2
If the UK does as EU had requested and agrees to holding European parliamentary elections as a condition for being granted a longer #Brexit delay then it’s hard to imagine EU saying no. Even if the PM only presents a vague plan of what intends to do during longer extension /3
Read 9 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
As MPs prepare to vote on different #Brexit routes, might be worth getting one thing straight.

You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an extension.

How do we know this?

1/quick thread
Why does this even saying? Well officials tell me that MPs still reckon that a delay is a route to a different deal. @TomMcTague @Jack_Blanchard_ report the same here.

Hard to believe, but after all this time, this torrent of verbiage, they still don't get the basics. /2
@TomMcTague @Jack_Blanchard_ But the reality of the conditions that will be attached to an extension to Article 50 is there, in black and white, in the text of last week's agreement to extend to April 12. /3

file:///H:/Downloads/UKEUextension%20(1).pdf
Read 6 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU countries’ position on #Brexit delay being described to me still as a “cacophony” - some for short, others for long, some for strict conditions, others more relaxed BUT /1
EU decision on extension depends a) on what PM asks for b) on EU leaders once in a room together Thurs. Fair to say: all options stil on table and EU leaders want to avoid no deal. There will be no EU “no” to an extension request /2
There are legal and political issues mixed up in EU’s extension decision: /3
Read 9 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
Read 16 tweets
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Mark Stone
@Stone_SkyNews
It was a busy night for the👩‍🍳👨‍🍳 at Her Majesty’s ambassador’s residence in Brussels last night.

The opulent residence, on Rue Ducale, was the venue for two separate but simultaneous dinners - one we knew about. The other, a curious meeting, we didn’t...[thread] /1
The first of the two dinners was publicly billed - it was #Brexit Secretary @SteveBarclay’s first meeting with EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator @MichelBarnier.
It’s the consequence of @theresa_may’s return to Brussels last week for her meeting with @JunckerEU /2
This dinner was significant if only because it constitutes ‘negotiations’ of sorts between two sides who’ve not really engaged directly since before Xmas.
Remember - 🇬🇧🇪🇺 negotiating teams signed off on #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in Dec.
The blockage since has been in 🇬🇧 /3
Read 19 tweets
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Adam Fleming
@adamfleming
European Parliament has just had an update on #Brexit from @danutahuebner who chairs the @EPInstitutional committee and is on the Brexit Steering Group (1)
▶️no idea when Brexit deal will arrive at European Parliament
▶️last point that Parliament can vote is first plenary session in March 19 because the second session would be too late
▶️negotiations have intensified but she hopes this isn't "a trick" (2)
▶️She had a meeting with @ukineu Sir Tim Barrow about the endgame
▶️political declaration on future relationship will not be legal text or legally binding
▶️views shifting towards political declaration being general because not enough time to negotiate the detail (3)
Read 5 tweets

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