Thread by @Niaccurshi

Here's why I think that rather than piling the votes in to Labour or Tories, you should be piling your votes into a *range* of Pro-EU candidates at the next election. I'm going to use my region, the South West and Gibraltar as an example...

The breakdown in 2014 was roughly:

UKIP: 484k (33%)
Tory: 433k (30%)
Labour: 206k (14%)
Green: 166k (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 160k (11%)

There were of course others, but all small numbers and mostly independent so not particularly pertinent as it stands

Now it's super early days to understand exactly what will happen in public opinion nearer election day, but I'm going to...

... WITH A HUGE CAVEAT OF THIS BEING EXTREMELY HYPOTHETICAL ....

... use the April "Open Europe" poll to make assumptions, especially re: Brexit Party

I'm also considering that "Change UK" or whatever they end up having to change their name to will have a presence, but I have no idea if they would stand in the SW&G region. I presume they will try to have a presence everywhere.

The takeaway from this initial poll that includes the Brexit Party and Change UK is that there seems set, for now, to be a split in the anti-EU vote. It may well come about that UKIP gets eaten alive by the "new" UKIP, much as the BNP were in 2014, but for now 🤷‍♂️

Note: remember, this isn't in a vacuum, this drop of UKIP + Brexit party is in maybe the biggest knowledge of the EU elections ever, with the context of Brexit very clear. People might argue "Oh but UKIP/BxP will bounce back", but given the slide AWAY from leaving, I am dubious

Note 2: I'm going to use the same turnout figures, I don't believe that it makes a difference what total vote figures are used, the percentages matter more, and it seems clear that one reason UKIP/BxP is dropping is because of increased intention to vote, especially remainers.

So applying some very rough (because it doesn't matter, you'll see) transitions of percentages the tables would shift to the following

Tory: 435k (30%)
Labour: 304k (21%)
Green: 174k (12%)
Lib Dem: 174k (12%)
Brexit: 174k (12%)
UKIP: 131k (9%)
Change UK/TIG: 58k (4%)

Even with some meddling of these figures the result would basically be the same, UKIP would lose their seat to BxP, Lib Dems would gain a seat from UKIP. Tory and Labour are unchanged.

So.. what use is boosting the Labour or Tory vote?

In such a situation you'd be taking votes from CHUK/TIG, and Lib Dems to move to a bigger party, the result would be... lose a pro-EU MEP, gain a Labour MEP (who may or may not be truly pro-EU) and BxP keep their MEP.

What is *actually* important is keeping UKIP and BxP split, with their vote shares below that of Lib Dems and Greens. Now lets consider CHUK/TIG, and the fact that actually it is supporting them that boots a UKIP/BxP MEP out. How? By Labour and Tory remainers voting for them!

It is *no good* for CHUK/TIG to try and snipe Lib Dem or Green voters, indeed all of these three parties should be encouraging voters to consider ANY of them. If they can't stomach Lib Dems at the doorstop, suggest at least to go to Green or CHUK/TIG

Labour and Tories are fairly locked in to get an MEP, and in fact as long as Labour does not drop below the percentage share of UKIP or BxP they are guaranteed to get that MEP. So what is Labour supporters strategy going to be?

Option 1) Same old same old, try to beat the tories to take the 2nd MEP from them, while leaving the SW&G sending an anti-EU MEP to parliament. Option 2) Consider that if you're a soft Labour voter (i.e. right now you'd vote Lab) give your vote to one of those other three parties

Option 2 would see Labour's share decrease, sending a message to the party that the priority for remain minded voters is to send a pro-EU message, but it wouldn't cost them an MEP. By bringing CHUK/TIG up they leapfrog UKIP or BxP for the final MEP.

It's this reason that I cannot abide or repeat the advice to just throw your vote as hard as possible into whoever the biggest party in your region currently is, because that only works if the vote share of the smallest party with an MEP is set to get *really small*

CHUK/TIG is an opportunity, as long as they don't mess it up *AS THEY CURRENTLY SEEM INTENT TO DO* providing a way to split the Lab/Tory vote enough to snipe an MEP away from an anti-EU party, and if BxP and UKIP continue to perform equally in polls they will destroy themselves

So support your pro-EU parties, don't feel guilted in to having to somehow shore your vote up with one of the big parties under this PR-like system, especially because it is extremely unlikely that will have the effect of removing anti-EU MEPs.

Finally, send a message to Westminster. We've had enough of Labour and the Tories messing around with Brexit, risking our country's future. They shouldn't be rewarded with more MEPs, they should take a hit to their vote share. Send that message at the polling stations.

P.S. What if BxP does gobble UKIP up? Well, then they get an MEP, nothing will stop that. If all Lib Dems voted with Labour then Labour would get another MEP, Lib Dems wouldn't. If Greens also voted Labour Greens would lose their MEP, Labour would gain one.

Without stopping the vote share of BxP or UKIP from rising too high, which you can't stop by advising smaller party voters to go and vote holding their noses for Labour or the Tories, you are not going to stop them from getting that MEP

Only the BxP and UKIP parties locking horns and splitting the vote will provide the opportunity to wipe out our truly anti-EU MEP contingent, and in that event all we need to do is raise all other ships above their likely vote share. That's got to be the plan.