Thread by @NatBullard

My latest for @bopinion @BloombergNEF: Behold the incredible shrinking electric vehicle battery bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Every year @BloombergNEF updates its model for the crossover point when electric vehicles will be cheaper upfront than a combustion vehicle.
In 2017 it was 2026 (9 years)
In 2018 it was 2024 (6 years)
In 2019, it's 2022 (3 years)
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

That means we're only one leasing cycle away from a consumer being able to make a simple, upfront "electric or combustion" decision. And it also changes the old rule of thumb that a battery is 50% of the cost of an electric car! bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

In 2015, a battery was 50%+ of a car's cost. Today it's only 33%. It'll be 20% by mid-decade. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

All that price action doesn't just benefit cars. It puts the 'vehicle' in 'electric vehicle' as well - not just passenger consumer vehicles, but other completely different platforms.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Platforms such as excavators, where being quiet and having no point source pollution would be beneficial
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

And car ferries in Scandinavia, where "“As both the size and cost of batteries decrease, battery operation becomes a very exciting alternative to traditional fuels for shipping" and will go into this ferry, the Stena Jutlandica bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

And short-hop commercial aviation, where ranges and capabilities “are changing very rapidly with the development of the battery technology" and allow @HarbourAirLtd to electrify a DC-2 de Havilland Beaver bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

(incidentally, the Scandinavian ferry-and-British Columbian seaplane applications are a very @colinmckerrache sort of thing) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

So, the incredible shrinking battery puts the 'vehicle' in 'electric vehicle' in lots of new, novel, useful ways.

All that and a bunch of weekend reading, here:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… /end