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Woah, TikTok India ban looking more likely. Existing users can still access; Android users can DL from 3rd party app stores.

Big deal since Sensor Tower estimates 43% of Jan '19 new users were from India, up from 9.5% in Jan '18.

sensortower.com/blog/tiktok-do…

ByteDance continues chipping away at Tencent

h/t @mbrennanchina for sharing these awesome infographics from China!

Looks like Byte, Vine's spiritual successor, officially opened its beta to its first 100 users. TikTok seems to have filled the void left by Vine, and I wonder what Byte can realistically do gain meaningful traction?

techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/vin…
Graph of (adult) US TikTok MAU's:

- Ramped up post-SoftBank's $3B round, has tappered a few times, this one aligns w/ parent co ByteDance emphasizing spending cuts
- Web + app users, how many are web links from other platforms?
- Doesn't include kids?

marketingcharts.com/charts/number-… Image
A good overview of how ByteDance / TikTok could get caught in macro US / China relations (see pic). Also, this stat is insane:

"Over the past three months, 13 percent of all the ads seen by users of Facebook’s Android app were for TikTok"

themargins.substack.com/p/tiktok-and-t… Image
ByteDance just launched FlipChat (Feiliao), an interest-based group chat app.

Was suspected to be a WeChat competitor, but appears more like what a "groups-first" Facebook will evolve into over the next few years. Shows hints it will monetize via a feed.

techcrunch.com/2019/05/19/byt… Image
TikTok's video-first UI rode the cross-language/cultural nature of UGC video to global dominance.

I have my doubts we'll ever see a global, feed-first, UGC-powered product, especially in FlipChat's (under served) "text / interest-based group chat / Reddit" hybrid space.
In addition to leveraging ByteDance's existing AI/data and deals with labels, could BD launch a music streaming app off the music discovery built-in to TikTok?

IE a "Stream this song" option alongside "Other videos with this sound" in the TikTok UI?

techcrunch.com/2019/05/21/tik…
Is it crazy to think the first iteration of a ByteDance phone will be an an Android-fork pre-loaded with its suite of apps, and possibly sold at a huge loss?

Truly wild to think about what a ByteDance "AI-first" operating system could look like one day.

ft.com/content/ea4a2b…
Better TikTok ad targeting is coming soon. Will likely be similar to Snap's lifestyle categories, is expected to be built on ByteDance's recommendation algorithm, which is powered by a) recognizing objects in videos and b) view / like / comment activity.

digiday.com/marketing/tikt… Image
Some new-ish TikTok stats:

- Aggregate time spent by US users is up 5x this year (per App Annie)
- Has 150M MAU's ex-China (per AA)
- Facebook's Lasso has only 187k total downloads (per Sensor Tower)

fortune.com/2019/06/26/tik…
Big 36-page ByteDance profile, good info on its lesser-known apps:

- Lark (Slack-clone): will have 1k employees, adding PowerPoint and video conferencing (Zoom) features
- Tomato Novel: ad-supported e-books
- Launching an "education platform" this summer

dropbox.com/s/x074kh7c951j…
This ByteDance deep dive also has some interesting charts, plus info on all its lawsuits (Tencent, Baidu, the Indian government, etc), music licensing woes, privacy policy mishaps, and data collection and AI processes.

dropbox.com/s/x074kh7c951j… ImageImageImageImage
Good read the role memes and music played in TikTok's rise. Paints a picture of the strategy ByteDance / TikTok will use to launch its music streaming service and what its value prop may look like for creators.

theringer.com/tech/2019/6/27…
New WSJ TikTok article:

- To-date: 104M US downloads; 1.2B globally
- US: 8+ sessions, 45 mins/day (was 46 mins in Oct '18)
- Starting to target "older people"
- Instagram is closest-watched non-Chinese product
- Interest in buying Snap, Twitter, Quora

wsj.com/articles/tikto…
This graphic highlights how TikTok has eaten into Instagram's download share over the past 18 months.

wsj.com/articles/tikto… Image
“More people came here for TikTok people than YouTube. Big YouTubers get ahead of themselves. They think they’re too good to be around their lower fans.”

“The older generation doesn’t realize how important TikTok is yet.“

theatlantic.com/technology/arc…
ByteDance confirms its working on a phone. Will be China-only at launch.

What does a ByteDance operating system look like? And does its 1B+ app user base give it an edge acquiring customers?

reuters.com/article/us-chi…
ByteDance Search is a big deal:

a) more ad inventory
b) captures intent

Sort of the opposite of Google (intent, user data) acquiring YouTube (video ad inventory)

BD (TikTok) has the video ad inventory, Search captures intent + additional interest data

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Not sure what to make of this, but TikTok is blowing up on Google Trends in September. Anyone have thoughts?

h/t @BrennanErbz for flagging Image
Looks like it could be related to the recent NFL deal

Good call by @therealmattdyer

theverge.com/2019/9/3/20847…
@therealmattdyer 85% of Meituan's July 2019 ad spend went to ByteDance

walkthechat.com/wechat-upgrade… Image
@therealmattdyer Per this article (the-ken.com/story/tiktok-o…), looks like TikTok is now at 120 million MAU's in India, up from 52 million in January.

@therealmattdyer It looks like Instagram MAU's are down* in 3 of its 4 largest markets in January '19 vs July '19

🇺🇸 120m --> 110m
🇮🇳 75m --> 69m
🇧🇷 69m --> 70m
🇮🇩 62m --> 59m

*Notes mention a change in methodology, but this supports the narrative that TikTok is stealing market share from IG ImageImage
@therealmattdyer ByteDance reported revenue of $7b - $8.4 billion in H1 '19. It's also GAAP profitable, impressive (?) considering all its R&D + growth spending.

BD also projects ~$16.8 billion in '19 revenue, which would value it at $134 billion comped to FB's 8x sales.

reuters.com/article/us-byt…
@therealmattdyer Good point by Rich on how TikTok memes have become ingrained in pop culture.

Also highlights the new captions they rolled out. TikTok's not the same experience without sound, and these likely spur more usage + consumption when sound isn't appropriate.

@therealmattdyer TikTok has 200M+ Indian MAUs (up from 120M in April; 53M in Jan)

Also adding educational content (laddering from dancing/memes)

In its quest to become YouTube 2.0: Dancing + comedy content worked globally; education content may have to be more localized

techcrunch.com/2019/10/17/tik…
@therealmattdyer Worth noting that TikTok's 200M MAU's in India is now 3x more than IG (~69m), closing in on YouTube (~265m), and nearly half of WhatsApp (~400m).

@therealmattdyer 30 min interview w/ 12-year ex-FB vet who just joined TikTok to lead international expansion

- Huge supply/demand mismatch that favors creators
- DAUs closing in on 1 billion (doesn't include Douyin?)
- Wants brands to be first-class citizen in the graph

youtube.com/watch?v=MwMdTB…
"I would argue TikTok isn't a social network. The other platforms are social networks. I don't see what my friends and family post or see on TikTok - I'm not even connected with them.

TikTok is more of a content graph than a social graph."

youtube.com/watch?v=MwMdTB…
Good thread on latest TikTok ad deck. Takeaways:

- 800m Global MAUs
- 500m China MAUs
- 30m US MAUs; time spent + app opens flat YoY (or dated?)
- 37b US video views/month (Snap has 300b+)
- 34% of DAUs use camera daily (Snap is 75% per Q1 '19 earnings)

ByteDance officially launches a music streaming product.

Less than $10/mo, focused on India, Indonesia, and Brazil.

ft.com/content/ffaed2…
Playlists are a huge differentiator for Spotify, but TikTok's core use case involves music, and many users discover new songs (and push them to the top of the charts) on the app. Could "tap to stream on TT Music" be a thing? And could TT's algo's help with new song discovery?
Per Sensor Tower, TikTok downloads are up 6% YoY. Seems a little slow? There was a pronounced slow down in the first half 2019. Going to be interesting to see a more detailed look at the numbers when they file to IPO!

sensortower.com/blog/tiktok-do… Image
Details on TikTok’s US creator / influencer acquisition strategy 👇

ByteDance regulatory risk appears to be over exaggerated: there were Zero takedown requests from China between Jan-June ‘19 per its transparency report released this week.

A look at ByteDance's recently launched consumer finance product:

- 23m registered users
- 12.8b RMB in credit granted ($1.8b)
- 3.95m in total loans
- 3.2k RMB per loan ($457)

h/t @iankar_ for flagging!

technode.com/2019/11/07/byt… ImageImageImageImage
Subtle hints on strength of TT’s UGC supply over YT:

“TikTok brought a younger group of motivated creators. Many YouTubers who felt secure in their status as internet elites are being threatened by this new wave of talent.”

h/t @TaylorLorenz for writing

nytimes.com/2020/01/03/sty…
@TaylorLorenz Resso, ByteDance's music app, just launched. Similar to Spotify but

- Lyrics are prominent. Important as it helps TikTokers understand the songs/memes.
- Emphasizes creating + sharing content
- Swipe to switch songs (has limited selection)
- Commenting

producthunt.com/posts/resso ImageImageImageImage
@TaylorLorenz Resso has the UI of Soptify with the spirit of YouTube. There's a "You" tab, unsure if there's a friend graph.

We'll likely see ByteDance cross-promote to grow its family of apps a la FB, IG, Messenger, etc

Overall, feels like continued moves to become YT/Google, not Spotify.
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Turner Novak
@TurnerNovak
I just finished putting together my second fantasy VC portfolio. Here’s a quick thread with an overview of my process and a link to read the full PDF that includes a one-page write-up on each investment.

docs.google.com/document/d/1FN…
My portfolio includes plays on restaurants, elevators, last mile delivery, computer vision, groceries, direct mail, weddings, school lunches, flowers, circular consumption, bees, taxes, employee perks, data management, stories for enterprise, micromobility, and digital avatars.
I tried to stay as early as I could (less than $10M raised) as that’s what I’m most interested in.

I prioritized positive long-term societal impact, and think investing in such a way can actually generate outsized returns in the right capacity.
Read 8 tweets
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Turner Novak
@TurnerNovak
Uber S-1 thoughts:

-AWS for transportation is its final form
-It's a modern day temp agency; driver churn is 3-5x below industry avg
-Eats cities profitable in 4-6 quarters, aggressive expansion impacted 2H‘18, 40% of users are new to Uber, and is a wedge into last mile delivery
If you’re reading this, I’m assuming you’ve read other Uber S-1 takes. We all knew Uber was burning cash, but a lack of cohort data (both drivers and riders), and its core business metrics collapsing to end 2018, was surprising.
Like most US companies, the US and developed Europe are likely Uber’s cash cows, but international revenue helps cover overhead, and can be incremental cash flow.

This a great deep dive comparing Uber and Lyft’s US vs International numbers:

Read 45 tweets
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Turner Novak
@TurnerNovak
Takeaways on the #SnapPartnerSummit today.

-Snap's US userbase likely grew in Q1
-Launching plug-and-play monetization for developers and publishers
-Bitmoji is a decentralized social network
-$SNAP continues positioning for a post-mobile world of experiential computing

Thread:
$SNAP premium video ads now reach 75% of 13-35 year olds in the US per month (up from 70% when it announced Q4 earnings) and 90% of 13-24 year olds. It reaches more 13-24 year olds than FB or IG in the US, Canada, UK, France, and Australia (some of the largest mobile ad markets)
Having lots of users is important, but where those users are located is even more important in terms of LTV. Facebook likely loses money on most of its users, making up for it significantly in the markets where Snap isn’t too far behind.

Read 28 tweets

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Jesse Miller
@MediatedReality
Alright @sophielui - let’s break down #TikTok - the generational divide isn’t real here. Facebook mom’s have caught up to the Snapchat party, social media got predictable, Twitter kinda sucks, and everyone has run over to TikTok looking for all of the fun.
Canadian #TikTok content is diverse, multilingual, active, cultural, and honestly a lot of fun. Let’s start with food, (a big chunk of Instagram was taking pictures of food), and this kid makes videos about Canadian 🇨🇦food stereotypes.
This hockey kid @alwayshockeyy has over 50k followers who watch his sick dangles - he’s the Crosby of TikTok & I want to believe that scouts factor his social media klout into their recruiting - he has double the subscribers on #TikTok than he does on YouTube. 🇨🇦
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
#India #Pakistan: Unprecedented heavy shelling all along the Line of Control has been reported by many sources in the last few hours. The Pakistani side of the LoC has been cut off from the internet. Casualties reported. Not clear what the reason is for the flare up.
#India #Pakistan: 200Km area is seeing worst ever Artillery Duel post Balakot Airstrikes after Pakistani Army tried to aid Terrorist incursion in Indian Side
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
#India readies a Kilo submarine for #Myanmar - India is set to hand over to Myanmar its first ever submarine, with a Kilo class boat likely to be sent this year after being refitted indigenously 👍 economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/t…

Via @Ayush59505784
INS Sindhuvir will be used by the Myanmar Navy — which is looking at acquiring a submarine fleet in the coming years, for training purposes. The Kilo class submarine, bought from Russia in the 1980s, is currently being modernised by the Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL) in Vizag.
The work is likely be completed before the end of this year. The transfer of the submarine is likely to take place with a line of credit (LoC) that has been extended by India to Myanmar for enhancing military capability.
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Aishwarya Kumar
@aishwaryak03
#India And #Pakistan In The Last 24 Hours

Indian government says it is not sending any representative for the Pakistan National Day celebrations at the #PakistanHighCommission in New Delhi. Official boycott.
Men dressed in civilian clothes stood outside #Pakistan High Commission today evening, just reminding all invitees to the Pakistan National Day celebrations that Indian govt had boycotted the event. "Entirely up to you if you want to attend it, but we thought you should know."
I was told the same thing to which I say that I understand and ask them for the way into the HC. "So you're going?" to which I respond in affirmative. They ask my name, take down my car number and clear the way.
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Mona Eltahawy
@monaeltahawy
Big news: A day after #WomenWallKerala (officials said 5million women protested for gender equality) Bindu Ammini, 42 & Kanakadurga, 41, made history by becoming 1st women to enter Sabarimala temple since Supreme Court lifted ban on women under 50 in Sept scroll.in/article/907934…
The Sabarimala shrine in Kerala was historically closed to women of "menstruating age" - defined as between 10 and 50. Media reports said the head priest had ordered the temple closed for "purification". news.yahoo.com/two-women-ente…
Bindu Ammini and Kanakadurga had tried to enter Sabarimala on December 24 but were prevented by protesters. Here’s a video with background on these women who made history today #Kerala #India #SabarimalaEntry #RightToPray
Read 6 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets

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