Thread by @anowheels

Should I live(ish) tweet this Avista IRP meeting? Sure.

Process has been delayed a bit because of something happening in the #waleg.

Participants in the room include @SierraClub @WAUTC IPUC @350Spokane, customers, and *lots* of Avista staff

Avista asks for any participant study requests for their IRP process by June 15, 2019

Avista has a pretty thorough spreadsheet with resource assumptions and will likely be updating it in the summer with more information.

Question from customer about impacts of renewable projects on his bill. Avista says that the wind project (Rattlesnake Flat) was very competitive but they cannot share the price.

Regional Legislative Update - start with #waleg

HB 1257 will set gas utility conservation targets, allow for renewable natural gas procurement #cleanbuildings Q: what is RNG? Short answer: #cowpower

HB 1444 (#quietthunder) would set efficiency standards and require grid ready water heaters!

HB 1512 and HB 1126 also going. Lots of action in the #waleg on climate and energy planning!

What's the other thing going on... oh yeh! SB5116 - 100% carbon neutral by 2030, eliminates coal from power by 2025, eliminates fossil-fuel generation by 2045. It's moving, yo.

Doug from @SierraClub reminds Avista that they can get out of Colstrip anytime, they don't need to wait until 2025.

A little spice in the discussion before I have fully digested my coffee: back and forth on thermal reliability, costs of renewables, costs of Colstrip cleanup. Avista notes they look at reliability, safety, and cost when assessing resources and that the legislation has cost caps.

Continuing on in regional updates. Idaho - no major legislative things impacting IRP planning. #mtleg... lots of stuff. SB 331, HB 476, SB 201, etc... An overview on the status of SB 331 here. ktvq.com/news/montana-n…

and #orleg! Avista is just a gas utility in Oregon, so would likely be impacted by HB 2020.

Q: Avista has a coal supply agreement that may not be finalized - is the modeling for the IRP going to include scenarios where there isn't a coal supply contract? A: May include some scenarios.

Next up: Transmission Planning Studies. This is a little out of my depth, but probably for most people. Let's jump in!

Transmission and systems planning: subject to conflicting forces/policies. Sources of electricity? Who cares. Electrons are electrons - as long as they are reliable and performing as contractually obliged. Corrective action plans otherwise: NERC TPL-001-4: nerc.com/files/TPL-001-…

"Inverse dog years are utility years" = utilities are planners (and resultingly slow)

[sorry for break in live tweeting, had to step out and talk about exciting topics like performance-based regulation, pay-for-performance, what I'm planning to eat for lunch]

Transmission Costs: in sum, sure you can put generation wherever, but how are you going to get it into the system? And is the sizing going to work?

Q: are smaller projects easier to interconnect in?
A: there is a point where large projects can be very expensive to interconnect

RAS = remedial action schemes. A tool to facilitate renewables integration that can delay Tx capital investments. Non-wires before non-wires was cool.

Current slide is bringing me back to Senior Physics.

Q: How much will the transmission system need to expand to include renewables?

A: Depends. Can it be shaped, does it have a battery, what's our load.

Break for cookies. If anyone is super interested in transmission and learning more, I can direct you to some good 101s

Back at it - electric distribution within the IRP. IRPs should really be ISPs = integrated systems planning, which includes distribution systems!

Example of distribution planning that can help the system: Smart meters can help manage the level of service on a distribution line, e.g., voltage control and optimization. Saves energy, money, better for consumers' electrical products.

Real world example: New development in Spokane-area was expected to stress the existing distribution system with its expected peak demand. Can Avista help the development shave or shift enough of the peak demand to avoid building new distribution (and new generation, ultimately)?

Old fashioned way: build a new substation 💸
New way: Put some batteries on the feeder lines! 🔋

As move EVs come onto the system, we need rate structures and other incentives that get the charging to happen when it is better for the system overall.

Q: are you working on the customer-side to manage peak demand?
A: less so.

Q: Does a new development bear some cost to upgrading the distribution system?
A: We have an obligation to serve. Line extension tariff does lay out cost-sharing.

Could imagine a similar effect on peak demand by putting some solar PV on the feeders, though real impact depends on whether we are planning for a summer peak or winter peak. Also, maybe duck curve! (maybe...) vox.com/2016/2/12/1097… ) 🦆

In the IRP, there were be a few of these problems... do you build a new substation? Or do we put in storage? In direct comparison, batteries don't pay off with today's prices, but what are the other benefits of those storage options and how do you value those (e.g., resiliency)?

[My aside connecting things I'm interested in: residential sprawl contributes to distribution planning issues and costs]

BREAK for lunch

We're back to talk about Avista's Conservation Potential Assessment!

(I had a piece of pizza, salad, cranberry bubble water and saw a wild turkey outside. Have you been to Spokane? It's lovely)

Oh, you don't read CPAs? Basically, they assess the potential for MOAR energy efficiency.

(1) Look at the market saturation of efficient products (e.g., LEDs), assess existing building stock, how customers use their energy, etc.
(2) Assess existing and emerging efficient technologies
(3) Figure out what's technically possible, and then what's "technically achievable"

And then the IRP figures out what is "economically" achievable, given Avista's resources needs, costs, etc., in comparison to the cost of getting some of that efficiency.

[Aside: CPAs are very "widget" focused, and not so good at things that work together, such as a whole building retrofit...]

Q: Do you look at distributed solar as part of this analysis?
A: Not as part of this, but have looked at it for other utilities (e.g., Hawaii)

[Another aside: there is an emerging trend to assess efficiency with a risk lens - that is, having your customers be more efficient may be less risky for the system than going off and buying more power to serve an energy need, even if it is slightly more $$ upfront]

Participant encourages more financing mechanisms to encourage more deep efficiency. Pay-for-performance, energy efficiency as a service, combinations with demand response... all things that might not be captured in a traditional CPA and IRP process.

[How will HB 1257 play out in future CPAs... fun to think about! If you're a nerd.]

Discussion of heat pumps. Heat pumps! Here's a recent article on the coming of cold weather heat pumps... greentechmedia.com/articles/read/…

Achievable conservation potential for Avista over 20y is similar to last process. Programs achieve conservation, codes improve, things get put into standard... so less to do. But new technologies come! Who would have thought ten years ago that LEDs would take off like they did?

[Eclair break]

We back! To talk about demand response potential.

Study sees potential to shave up to 7% of peak by 2040. Study did not capture the impacts of HB1444 (#quietthunder), which would require DR-ready electric storage water heaters.

Q: How to capture the interactivity between EE and DR?
A: EE value first, then DR. [A bit simplified]

(Do you want to learn more about grid ready water heating? Yes. utilitydive.com/news/utilities…)

(OMG, you want to read more about distributed "storage" programs? communitystorageinitiative.com/wp-content/upl… )

Main drivers in Avista's DR potential are water heating, smart thermostats, variable pricing and TOU rates, third party contracts (e.g., commercial & industrial curtailment) - smaller amounts from smart appliances, battery storage, behavioral programs

[even with some fairly conservative assumptions, there is a lot of DR potential out there - just needs the right policy motivators and program design!]

Next up: An overview of the Smart Grid Demonstration Project 🧠pnwsmartgrid.org/about.asp

Demo included 11 utilities, under management of Battelle, in collaboration with BPA and a variety of vendors. Through the demonstration, Avista experimented with some initial demand response strategies. pnwsmartgrid.org/docs/avista.pdf

The discussion is reminding me of a conference I want to go to - the Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change (BECC) conference through @ACEEEdc aceee.org/conferences/20…

Next up! A brief summary of the E3 Resource Adequacy in the Pac NW study from Feb. Commissioned by utilities, looking at the potential policy future... If you want more: publicgeneratingpool.com/e3-carbon-stud…

Using my current favorite energy acronym - LOLP (loss of load probability)

The "Pac NW" study area includes Utah (which is part of Pacificor(p)'s territory and part of the ) but not BC, which does include hydro assets used in the system.

(I know utilities are--by nature, design, and policy--planners, but I wonder what the utility planners in 1988 could have predicted about the state of our system in 2019)

Next meeting in August - a great time to be in Spokane and talk about price forecasts! (I will be out of town, if anyone wants to take my place)

I had to leave to make my flight, which I'm probably cutting close. Observation: Tweeting a meeting definitely makes you pay attention! And distilling eight slides into a tweet is good practice on communications.