Thread by @PlugInFUD

🚨 ELMER TERMINAL EXPONENTIALLY RAMPING CONSPIRACY THEORIES 🚨

*Points towards 395' in center field*

*this is the last time i'll ever make this prediction, win or lose*

🚨 THE GOD-KING's REIGN ENDS ON APRIL 24th. 🚨

$tsla $tslaq

The events of this week have convinced me that Elon will quit on (or around, but probably on) the Q1 conference call.

Gather round, because as promised, I promise if i'm wrong i wont waste your scrolling with any similar theory again.

Here's how I see it:

Firstly, as I have said here and there over the past week or so, I think the final straw that *could* make the board grow a pair and fire the god-king is not his antics, but rather, Tesla business performance.

$420 funding secured? who cares, we're in the middle of this yuge ramp and on the way to a (relatively) massively profitable quarter.

Poking the SEC bear w/ Shortseller Enrichment Commission bs? again, Elon's delivering, and that's Good For Tesla™️

But that has now changed.

Q1 deliveries were, as $tslaq predicted, an unmitigated disaster. Model S/X globally down by more than 50%. Model 3, in the US, down by 50%. **while prices were SLASHED!!!** Stores were closed, then reopened.

Q2 cannot conceivably be better in any type of way. There wasn't an earthquake in Fremont that messed up Q1 results or something; it was just a tapped out order book (tax credit stuff + general fulfillment of backlog), and no replacement demand. Nothing changes in Q2.

So, fast forward to February 19.

At this time, Tesla had *maybe* delivered 15-20k cars worldwide (per Q1 letter's remark that only 30k had been delivered by Mar 21). Yet Elon upwardly revises Tesla official guidance and says they'll make 500k cars in 2019.

This, of course, later results in the SEC reopening the $420 funding secured matter with Elon.

But, this may also mark the beginning of the end,

The Board has been feeling heat for 6+ months, beginning with funding secured. They have provided cover for Elon, again, because it was Good For Tesla™️. But now, in the middle of a quarter that is going more poorly than anyone (on WS) imagined, Elon tells this blatant lie.

And, to be clear, its perhaps even an actionable blatant lie. Again, at this point, Elon/Tesla has to internally know that business is going poorly. They'll likely revise FY forecasts downward on next week's call. but Elon had the audacity to create this pump, out of nowhere.

Fast forward to end of Q1.

Tesla reports 50k Model 3's sold, including likely 30k in the US (more than 50% QoQ decline), and 12k S/X sold globally (more than 50% decline).

Yet Elon has sold the vision that 2019 would be a year of continued ramping.

Then, on April 3rd, Elon has the audacity to announce (for the first time, out of nowhere) a "investors day" autonomy event, before he releases the Q1 flash report that wall street had been expecting since yesterday.

I imagine this may have represented the last straw for the board.

Next, the April 4th hearing goes well for Elon & Tesla. Judge isnt convinced either way, tells the parties to go back and negotiate. Behind closed doors, who knows what is going on, but there's great potential that Tesla directors are getting SEC heat re: not controlling elon.

So, over the next week - maybe there's a coup.

The board has some secret meetings without Elon, and decides that he is finally an unacceptable liability to Tesla. The business has clearly turned (under elon's management), and his antics are a further distraction.

Time to reset.

The board informs Elon of this on Friday/Saturday.

He, of course, takes this like a child. Hence the meltdown this past weekend, which included YET ANOTHER 500k number tweeted out. that's an extra nice F-U to the SEC and board.

Elon calms down. He understands he's not going to change this. The entire board (with perhaps kimbal abstaining) has voted that it's time for him to go. But at least they'll let him bow out gracefully and solve some problems at the same time.

First, Elon will get the chance to say his second-to-last goodbye at Autonomy day. He'll be able to proudly tell the world that under his watch Tesla has built a propriety level [2? 3? 4? 5?] self driving system that's totally better than waymo.

(his third-to-last goodbye was during the Model Y reveal, when he spent an hour talking about the history of Tesla and 5 mins talking about the fake Model Y).

Then, his last goodbye will come on the Q1 call.

Elon can speak proudly about the past year Tesla has had, getting 200k Model 3's in customers hands, and it's the Best Selling Everything™️ in pretty much every country ever.

He can re-highlight the progress towards FSD highlighted on Monday.

And then, if he can find it in him, perhaps he can even show some humility.

He can admit that the HyperGrowth™️ of the past year came at a cost. Because he had promised too much, things were done quickly, but could have been better planned. Tesla over-predicted Model 3 demand, and didn't realize how much it (and tax credit cuts) would impact S/X demand.

So, it's time for him to step aside for a new era at Tesla. He's proud that he made it a Real Auto Company™️ (at least for a quarter or two), and now it's time for him to step back, focus on getting to mars, and let someone else run the business. Maybe he's still an adviser.

And then, the next day, Elon and the SEC re-settle - in exchange for him stepping down (which was pre-arranged this past week, but embargoed to allow Elon this opportunity to bow out) - there will be no further sanctions for Elon, and especially not for Tesla.

So what next?

Obvious bear porn is that the next day, Tesla restructures, and $tslaq wins (in the short term, and customers/stakeholders/etc win in the longer term).

More likely, JB or someone else takes the reigns, tries to raise, and sees how that goes.

But with waning demand, a revision from 360-400k deliveries to 220-280k deliveries, the former cash cows in dire need of a refresh to battle coming competition, WC deficit, debt coming due, $420 lawsuits, etc... all signs point to eventual $tslaq

This could even be Good For Elon™️ as as long as there's a slow drain-circling, a lot of his shares will get sold and he can lick his wounds.

Possibilities to blow up this theory?

- FSD really is here (Never Bet Against Elon™️ and shorts get owned.
- Elon too proud to leave

But, like i said, this is the best and last time i'm making this call.

I got deepak right in Q4

lets see if i've got the magic touch in Q1

Elon, if you do leave, I'll miss you dearly. Thanks for the fun over the past year or so that I've been in the $tslaq cabal.

thoughts?

Almost forgot:

Elon sees himself as the sacrifical lamb.

(or he's just finally opening up about putting on a few lbs).

addendum 2:

re: board attitude:

i think there may be *hints* that there were cracks forming a few weeks ago.

Addendum 3:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1119093220544147457?s=19

Neither confirms nor denies that a shakeup is in the works. But, sus.