Thread by @CoverDrive12

1/ OK, Wednesday is almost upon us. It's time to do a quick update to the Q1 earnings estimate. There are likely to be significant one-time expenses and/or credits that will surprise us all. So instead of deep-diving each element, I'll share this morning’s shot from the hip.

2/ Revenue: We know that unit sales were down 30%. Prices were discounted significantly in the quarter. But overseas sales of Model 3 (about half the total) were all premium models. In the end, I calculated that revenues would also be down about 30%.

3/ Energy: Same as Q4.
Services/Other: I believe Tesla remains deeply underwater with used car sales. The problem is worse in Q1 because it has to balance against 30% less revenue.
ZEV: Just a guess. $50 million just as a placeholder.

4/ Operating Expenses: SG&A should be expanding in some proportion to worldwide footprint. R&D should be expanding to deliver FSD, Model Y, Semi, Roadster, and the future pickup. Yet I only see a pullback on expenses. I expect it to be reduced to a perfectly round $1B.

5/ Operating Loss: All of this calculates out to an operating loss of $400 million. Compared to an operating profit of $414 million last year, this would be catastrophic. To my mind, this is the most important number on the income statement.

6/ Other adjustments below the line could be just about anything this quarter. Assuming no big surprises, $200 million should be a good number.

7/ Bottom line: GAAP loss of $600 million. $3.37 per share. $2.17 non-GAAP.