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And so we return after a Brexit break of a week to the news that apparently nothing has changed, that the UK political establishment continues to be largely united in reality denial when it comes to EU negotiations. And is as ever ignoring the other side... 1/
We can deal quickly with the alternative arrangements - start with this response from Northern Ireland business 2/
Then you may also have missed this story on the leak of a Home Office document saying a technology solution to Northern Ireland is at least 10 years away (matching what I previously told a Select Committee) news.sky.com/story/technolo… 3/
Beyond this, the main problem with the no-deal Brexit position remains that this is to be the prelude to one or more deals, in which the EU is assumed to back down on money, Ireland border etc. There's no evidence they would... 4/ fullfact.org/europe/leave-w…
(the position of the DUP incidentally remains a puzzle, since they must be aware that no-deal will mean Northern Ireland specific arrangements very quickly, and a GB-EU Free Trade Agreement is also viable) 5/
Meanwhile we have the cross-party talks which by all accounts are being taken seriously, but seem to stand very little chance of success, since the PM cannot admit that her plans entail a Customs Union for many years, and Labour is split... 6/ ft.com/content/f5c0b6…
So, we're still stuck with the UK Parliament rejects no-deal, the existing deal, and no-Brexit. Some think that must lead to an election, but I'm still not convinced. For change, look to the EU... potentially we are heading to a post-summer crisis... 7/ ft.com/content/8b139a…
This EU text from the agreement giving us an extension is crucial. Turning previous statements to cold reality, it means either accepting a flawed agreement, or no-deal, or no-Brexit. Many will now recognise the Greek parallel... 8/ 
If you can't reopen the Withdrawal Agreement then cross-party talks aimed at finding a UK consensus can't be reflected, and already unrealistic timescales m(e.g. below on the backstop) become more so with the extension so we'd be signing an unimplementable agreement 9/
Our situation is then analagous to Yanis Varoufakis' account of Greece negotiating with the EU and others in 2015 - that many on the other side accepted the proposed solution couldn't work, but bureaucratic inertia meant too much was invested to change 10/ theguardian.com/books/2017/may…
Easy to conclude this thread then by suggesting that the UK debate is nowhere near conclusion, there's no sign of any immediate breakthrough (too much politically at stake for key individuals to back down). And so we go on... 11/ end
PS if that wasn't enough for you @Sime0nStylites has a mega thread on how we got here. Might not make your day better though...
