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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A striking and under-analysed Brexit development has been the growing tension within the Conservative Party between "Global Britain" and "Anglocentric Britain" where the latter is currently in the ascendancy given Huawei / trade policy etc
Global Britain is arguably possible in or out of the EU, but Anglocentric Britain requires the UK outside of the EU, and therefore fits better with the current politics of the Conservative Party. However I detect limited public and business enthusiasm for the latter
Anyway, looking forward to joining a panel tomorrow to talk Brexit and the Belt and Road Initiative, much to discuss, but the context of the UK's future direction is essential framing
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
My local council election / Brexit takeaway - Corbyn and May can talk of Brexit deals needing to be done, but the pressure on them from MPs and activists will be absolutely the opposite - for 'sorting' via no-deal or referendum
For the Conservatives, a shocking result especially in the south, I can only recall 1995 being worse for them, when of course we had a Government riven over the EU, Labour with a Blair honeymoon. But Conservatives lost seats yesterday they didn't in 1995
The elections were clearly a rejection of the Government's handling of Brexit, either way, but the relationship between Labour wins and losses and Brexit handling seems harder to spot on first sight, maybe not surprisingly given their ambiguity on the subject
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Waking up to lots of instant takes on local election results, recalling that these days a lot of counting takes place on a Friday, and further recalling plenty of breakthrough nights for Lib Dems in the past. Will wait before declaring significance...
Favourite local election take so far
I'm sure the Conservatives having lost a quarter of their seats so far and therefore living down to worst expectations will be very pleased that most of the local election takes I'm seeing are about Labour's result / position on Brexit (both confused)
Read 9 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Implies we won't have reached a deal with the EU by 2022 (likely) and won't necessarily have even started serious negotiations.

To negotiate the details of an agreement you have to know what you want.
Looks it's nice there's a commission to redesign the basis of international borders and cross-party talks to determine the difference between customs union and arrangement, but recognition of the realities of just how complex our upcoming negotiation will be would also be welcome
Every single part of the economy is going to be affected by talks on the future economic relationship with the EU. And then all the bits will inter-relate in different ways. A vague Labour / Conservative compromise is level 1 of about 100, and they get successively harder
Read 3 tweets

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Helene von Bismarck
@HeleneBismarck
Exceptionalism is an intellectual trap. Not just for the UK, but for the EU27 as well. Thread. (Based on an essay I published in German in the Swiss @RepublikMagazin on 10 April). 1
What are non-Brits to make of the #Brexit drama of the last few months? Is all this just the culmination of a doomed British EU-membership that was always destined to fail? This interpretation is tempting, but ultimately ahistorical and lacking in nuance. 2
Frustrated as many Europeans understandably are with the extent of ignorance and sometimes open hostility towards the EU displayed in the British Brexit debate, this is no excuse for us to base our interpretation of Brexit on stereotypes or a selective reading of history. 3
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Ben Kelly
@TheScepticIsle
Support for ‘no deal’ Brexit is the pinnacle of Leave's descent into zealotry. The end result of refusing to plan

Like Trump, 'no deal' advocates have flooded the debate with “alternative facts”
It won't end well

THREAD! PLEASE RETWEET!

#Brexit #WTOBrexit #NoDealBrexit #SOS
The increased support for a ‘no deal’ Brexit is the ultimate failure of the Leave movement. It’s the inevitable consequence of the refusal to grasp details, come to terms with complexity & coalesce around a plan. Compromise can be frustrating. So instead they will have a tantrum.
Some Brexiteers advocated sensible solutions. The EFTA/EEA solution gained a lot of traction in the years before the ref. Even Farage had promoted it & countless others. See Farage below from 2011 essentially making the ‘Liberal Leave’ case!
Read 55 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
1. A short story of #Brexit in four acts. Act 1) in 2010 Coalition comes to power and presses on with dramatic #austerity, wrecking the UK's social compact... causing massive economic harm...leading to 2015 General Election
2.... in which Cameron promised an #EUref, while secretly speculating on another hung parliament with #LibDems blocking such a referendum theguardian.com/world/2019/jan… Yet, Act 2) lots of #austerity disgruntled #LibDems & 2010 non-voters, along with some Cons voters switched to..
3. #UKIP in 2015 General Election. #LibDems got wiped out, #Cons gained 27 seats from LibDems (out 28 overall seat gain), while #Labour lost massively to #SNP -- allowing Cameron to go alone, being pushed by #Brexiteers in #Conservative party to go ahead with #EUref.
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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Peter Jukes
@peterjukes
1. The effect of Mercer funding - of both Young Americas Foundation and Young Britons foundation - shows the three pronged strategy of Steve Bannon's influence on both #Brexit and #Trump
2. The first strategy is the Tea Party style insurrection from the right. (Kassam and Farage were inspired to invent their own British Tea Party until they realised that it was a rebellion against the Brits)
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