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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The UK can either have no rules of origin checks, no tariffs and no quotas with the EU, or a fully independent trade policy.

It cannot have both.

Unfortunately, the current debate lacks any depth with almost no one seriously examining the pros and cons of this trade off.
Explanation: If the EU allows all UK products in tariff and quota free, and the UK is free to lower its tariffs below those of the EU, the EU needs rules of origin checks to ensure the UK isn't being used as a back-door into the EU Customs Union.
Neither an independent trade policy nor comparatively facilitated goods trade with the EU are divine mandates to be unquestioningly pursued.

Introducing friction into EU goods trade would cause x economic damage, and trade policy independence has y potential.

Is x > y?
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More from @DmitryOpines see all

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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
1/ Greg Hands and Nicky Morgan will co-chair a commission into 'alternative arrangements.'

For me whether this is another unicorn hunt PR exercise rests on one question:
- Is the goal to avoid a permanent backstop, or a permanent backstop provision?

brexitcentral.com/former-ministe…
2/ If the goal is to come up with customs arrangements to convince the EU withdraw its demand a WA include the backstop provision, then this is a waste of time.
3/ Even were the Commission to unearth a brilliant solution, there would be no way to implement it before Brexit.

The EU would therefore need the backstop provision regardless. It is not going to risk the GFA on an unimplemented plan without legal assurances (a backstop).
Read 6 tweets
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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
Few lies are as poisonous or more difficult to dispel once uttered than a speaker telling the audience that something they fear has already caused devastation somewhere he's been but that's conveniently too far for them to personally verify or refute.
The people at a Nigel Farage speech are already inclined to believe him over the inevitable incredulous refutation in the Guardian (which they don't read).

They then go home and retell the story to neighbors and on Facebook, where they will present it as established fact.
By the time you ultimately convince someone that Farage was making this up, or wildly exaggerating, it probably won't matter.

Not only have they already told fifty other people, but they feel attacked and put upon. By that point what matters is it FEELS like it COULD be true.
Read 3 tweets
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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
1/ Another synagogue has been desecrated with cowardly murder, AR-15 spitting hate and ignorance at one bullet per trigger pull.

To the surprise of no one, we learn the shooter's demented world view was stewed in the foul waters of an online forum (8chan).
2/ Self evidently, browsing 8chan alone is not enough to turn anyone into an active shooter. If it were, the streets of Western cities would resemble Aleppo.

There must be something fundamentally broken at someone's core to make them unload a rifle into civilians.
3/ Yet just as self evidently, the seeds of such evil grow far more readily in the hate filled soil of fringe forums and when fertilised with the dogwhistles of opportunist political leaders.
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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Bojan Pancevski
@bopanc
A little thread on the state of #Brexit from #EU perspective: top priority is avoid a no deal. May agreeing to hold European elections is a breakthrough towards a long extension. Her letter was coordinated with EU leaders. If May doesn’t find an arrangement with 1/
Corbyn there would likely be a long extension that won’t be called that. A year-long extension would take the pressure off Westminster so we could end up with successive extensions to keep Brits on their toes. This may become more palatable that the @eucopresident flextension 2/
proposal. It is nearly inevitable that Britain will remain in the Customs Union, as May has long accepted. When this becomes clear in Westminster, and the idea of a post-#Brexit independent trade policy fades away, staying in the Single Market could become an option again. 3/
Read 5 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Corbyn letter to PM sets out terms for support of Brexit - a permanent customs union. Five points, not six tests, with no mention of “exact same benefits”
Corbyn also acknowledges a deal “would need to include A backstop” having been highly critical of THE backstop - this follows work in Belfast from Starmer praised by sister party SDLP
Point number 2 on Single Market is important - shared institutions - (could that be efta Court?) “close alignment” - how close?. As far as I can see Labour only criticises about 1% of the Single Market acquis - on state aid and competition. So how far is this off EEA?...
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I'm going to gamble here and explain why I disagree with @pmdfoster over his interpretation of the Commission's messaging on tech fixes in the past few days. Gamble because he is usually right, but I think there's a missing negotiator's context 1/
This is the central argument - that by destroying the backstop now the Commission are removing a ladder the ERG could climb down at the last minute. But I think the Commission think the PM removed this last week and want to make that clear 2/
The Brexit deal as constructed to the PM's recipe relied on ignoring the fact that there were no technology solutions to the Irish border, pretending that there would be in the future relationship. Kick the can down the road, keep the Conservatives united 3/
Read 10 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. To address a point that remainers are having fun with... the assertion that Argentina will use our #Brexit circumstances at the WTO to enhance its stake on the Falklands... is totally baloney. You know this of course, but there's a few points worth making. #Trade thread!
2. These such signals are as much for domestic consumption as anything else. This isn't the first and won't be the last. We will see a number of attempts to frustrate the UK's separation process in the hope that it will leverage concessions from the UK.
3. Some FT hack has probably already penned a poison article on how the UK will be forced to cave in because we are so weakened and feeble without the EU. As a point of fact the UK is not obliged to concede on any point at any time so long as it pays due regard to consequences.
Read 25 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The UK may not have left the EU yet, but our 1st international trade negotiations have started - to establish our WTO schedules. We focus on it for the latest @ECIPE publication - summary: not going smoothly, could do better 1/ ecipe.org/publications/t…
Now according to Liam Fox appearing before the @CommonsIntTrade committee 2 weeks ago, all is fine - the EU might have to show flexibility, but the UK's is being good and generous in maintaining existing WTO market access 2/
Unfortunately agriculture exporting countries see it differently. They think the UK approach of splitting quotas between UK and EU is in effect a loss of market access, as failing to account for x-EU trade, and loss of flexibility.. They are likely to object 3/
Read 10 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. So in yesterday's thread I set out the case as to why we need well regulated markets and systems of conformity assessment and the added value it brings. Plenty of remainers agreed with that thread. It makes an obvious case for the single market. A few more points...
2. Firstly I would note that political union is not required for extensive collaboration on standards and customs. Most of what remainers say they like about the EU is not the EU, rather it is the single market and the economic benefits of it.
3. The existence of the EEA demonstrates that we can have equitable trade collaboration with the EU without handing the decision making to Brussels. We do not have to be part of a European proto-state to get the benefits of trade.
Read 21 tweets

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