Thread by @bopanc

A little thread on the state of #Brexit from #EU perspective: top priority is avoid a no deal. May agreeing to hold European elections is a breakthrough towards a long extension. Her letter was coordinated with EU leaders. If May doesn’t find an arrangement with 1/

Corbyn there would likely be a long extension that won’t be called that. A year-long extension would take the pressure off Westminster so we could end up with successive extensions to keep Brits on their toes. This may become more palatable that the @eucopresident flextension 2/

proposal. It is nearly inevitable that Britain will remain in the Customs Union, as May has long accepted. When this becomes clear in Westminster, and the idea of a post-#Brexit independent trade policy fades away, staying in the Single Market could become an option again. 3/

Freedom of movement is the only obstacle to that but, in the words of Phil Hammond, there are hardly any red lines left. A Norway + solution would be extremely attractive to most EU countries. So Macron will not prompt a no deal against a majority even as frustrations run high 4/

Despite the hard rhetoric he hasn’t so far been able to achieve anything fully opposed to the German position and on #Brexit Merkel is working overtime to help find a solution that works for all. End/