Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Don't take these too seriously. 53eig.ht/2vmHurJ
But, yeah, I revised my candidate tiers somewhat to make them more closely match the polling (looked at in a smart way, e.g. adjusted for name recognition, etc.) For now, Biden probably needs to be in a group by himself.
Tier 1 means: The campaign is mostly coming together right now.

Tier 2 means: Not quite coming together, but easy to imagine that changing.

Tier 3 means: Not coming together and no particular reason to think it will, but stranger things have happened.

53eig.ht/2vmHurJ
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Pretty sure I could talk myself into thinking that Bill de Blasio is the 14th- or 15th-most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.
Like Hickenlooper, he's a guy where if you were just looking at the resume without the name, you'd think it was semi impressive:

—2-term mayor of the largest US city (re-elected by 39 points)
—fairly popular with blacks & Hispanics
—outspoken progressive in a party moving left
Like most resumes, that leaves out the many, many, many negatives. Which is why he's 14th or 15th and not 4th or 5th. But he's above, like, the Swalwell-Moulton line.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
A lot of the replies to this are proving my points, which are that:
1) Many voters don't vote based on policy;
2) A fair number of Dems who do vote on policy will prefer Biden's policies to Bernie's;
3) Voters don't think Bernie has a lot of non-policy advantages vs. Biden.
Also, irrespective of age as a signifier of identity, one of the most fruitful lines of attack against Biden is simply that he's too old—polls show a lot of voters are concerned about that—and Bernie can't make that argument *at all*.
If you're a "never Biden" Democrat, and not at least a bit concerned with the state of the race right now, with Biden at ~38% and Bernie at ~16% after he got 43% last time, and a bunch of up-and-coming candidates you'd also prefer to Biden at 5-10%, I'm not sure what to tell you.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
MINI-THREAD: If you're someone on the left and you want to defeat Biden, a 76-year-old white guy, then maybe backing Sanders, a 77-year-old white guy, is not the way to do it.
Like it or not, "identity" (race, age, gender) is a major aspect of what people vote on. And you're probably not going to persuade many voters to back Bernie over Biden on the basis of electability or "leadership" (since Biden was VP); those are disadvantages for you, in fact.
So you're really banking on making up a LOT of ground on Bernie being closer to the center of the Democratic electorate on policy, which it's not clear he is, or voters agreeing with his institutional critique of the Democratic Party, which most Democrats won't.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Amy Wheeless
@anowheels
Should I live(ish) tweet this Avista IRP meeting? Sure.
Process has been delayed a bit because of something happening in the #waleg.
Participants in the room include @SierraClub @WAUTC IPUC @350Spokane, customers, and *lots* of Avista staff
Read 64 tweets
Profile picture
Richard James
@RichJamesBits
I have reached a whole new level of #PISSEDOFF.

I didnt think such a #dark and #scary state, or level, could be reached. It may top 12-14-17's causation. It's. That. Bad. So, I've prepared a statement...

docs.google.com/document/d/1_J…

#PascoSheriff #HaveYouAllNoShame @CigarCityBeer
Dear @FBI,
I must implore you ask your colleauges in @FBITampa to help research this new level of #PISSEDOFFNESS. As locals, they may offer a special indepth knowledge of this new level I have reached. This is not fair & law enforcement must #investigate. No one deserves this.
This is my #apogee of #Pissedoffness.
If #motherfuckers & #tears werent a noticable level.
If #HUSH or #INTIMIDATION tactics being deployed didnt strike a chord.
If #EVIDENCE, PROOF, or 30k Bonds didnt #WOW YOU.
If posting mom with no shred of investigatable value wasnt enough...
Read 463 tweets
Profile picture
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
Manafort gave 75 PAGES of #polling data to a #Russian🇷🇺intelligence agent (Kilimnik) with the GRU👉hacked @TheDemocrats.

Manafort gave #Russia DETAILED "cross-tabs" (not just top-line results) that could be used to MICROTARGET voters on social media.🤬

thedailybeast.com/paul-manafort-…
I ran for Congress, and my husband served for 6 years in Congress. Campaigns typically only share such DETAILED #polling data to entities helping the campaign communicate with voters (e.g., field, mailings, TV/radio/social media ads, etc).🤨

#TrumpRussia
Team🇺🇸Mueller said the Manafort/Kilimnik meeting goes to the "heart" of the #TrumpRussia🇷🇺probe👉there is NO legitimate explanation for why Manafort would share such DETAILED #polling data with THE RUSSIANS.

Total "#collusion," also known legally as #conspiracy against the US.🤬
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Keith W. Boone
@motorcycle_guy
Starting at page 221 with the regulation itself (see how I do this...I skip to the regs first, I’ll go back through the preface material later) #PatientAccess cms.gov/Center/Special…
In the following, mom is simply how I think about the phrase "Medicare Enrollee". It could be dad, uncle Fred, my buddy Glen et cetera. #PatientAccess is about the patient.
So, mom's MA organization has to provide APIs that allow her to use an app (after mom approves it) to access standardized claim data, adjudications, appeals, provider payments (remittances) and co-payments (cost-sharing) within one business day of claim processing. #PatientAccess
Read 182 tweets
Profile picture
Chris Kavanagh
@C_Kavanagh
So following @PsychRabble's thread on whether I, and others, are justified in criticising @QuilletteM for its ideological bias, here is my own take. Thread.
First, I admit I haven't done some objective empirical content analysis of Quillette's content. So I fully acknowledge that makes my assessment prone to distortion by my political/ideological biases (which are centre left, anti-ideologue, and pro-rationalism).
That said, I haven't done a content analysis of the Guardian, Breitbart, or the Economist either and I remain pretty confident that I can correctly recognise their ideological and political skew.
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
Olalekan 'T. Adepoju
@Dgreatlekan
This is a daily thread on some 31 ways to keep our use of English simple, short and meaningful. We will expound 1 way per day for the next 31 days.

Questions can be raised here or via DM.
Pls RT & stay tuned.

#KissPrinciple
Way 01- Choose the easy path!
Actually, anything worth doing is potentially hard. Simple sentences, however, are less problematic because of their simple structures. Familiarize yourself with and use them often.

#KissPrinciple
The simple sentence could contain both obligatory (VERB) and optional (SUBJECT, OBJECT or COMPLEMENT) elements. These are very important aspects!

#KissPrinciple
Read 166 tweets

Trending hashtags

#DIRTYLAWYERS #Australia #INTIMIDATION #climatechange #BitchPlease #PascoSherrif #HaveANiceDay #illegal #LivePDFans #Yeah #bankrecords #crimescene #opportunity #SWFC #Myths #Part2 #COURTHOUSE #proveit #NoGag #SAFC #ASS #FFS #LUFC #MerryChristmas #IPHONEx
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!