Thread by @Trinhnomics

China activities weaker in Q2 2019 👇🏻:

April official manufacturing PMI declined 📉to 50.1 from 50.5 (exp 50.5); services down📉 to 54.3 from 54.8 (exp 54.9)

Caixin out in 45 mins. Btw, we knew this from the bad sub-component of Q1 GDP, esp if u look at POE investment 😬

👇🏻Details for manu PMI (this matters b/c 🇨🇳 dominates global manu - 1/5 manu comes from China):

a) Output 📉
b) New orders📉
c) Inventories 📉
d) Employment further contraction to 47.2 from 47.6📉

Silver lining, seems like new export orders bottoming but still contracting ...😬

Input prices are elevated but rate of increase is slowing so that is not good if costs high & revenue & orders 📉📉

Don't forget that this is the OFFICIAL number so they are saying that policy tightening not happening & defo stabilization of activity but an L-shaped recovery🇨🇳😬

From a policy perspective, this gov' official PMI release tells u that:

a) IP & retail sales were too hot in March & activities of PMI likely peaked in March;

b) Q2 PMI stabilizes & don't expect a V-shaped recovery out of China;

c) Help still needed but not as much as before.

Caixin April Manufacturing PMI slowed 📉🇨🇳 to 50.2 from 50.8 (expectation is 50.9) 😬

Here is the press release for slowdown of Caixin Manu to 50.2 from 50.8:

a) Subindex for new orders fell slightly
b) Output dropped & employment went back to negative
c) Input & output charges dropped.

Meaning, stabilization but defo not V-shaped recovery. L-shapy 😬